Will Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French Presidential Election? [ resolves 2027-04-30 (281D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 37 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 2027-04-30 | 90.0% | $5 | $5.7K | B | 0x4de07f…9b4a | ||
| Édouard Philippe | 2027-04-30 | 43.0% | $200 | $961 | B | 0xb566fa…c158 | ||
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 2027-04-30 | 40.0% | $9 | $2.9K | B | 0x7c9c13…3bc2 | ||
| Gabriel Attal | 2027-04-30 | 11.0% | — | $877 | B | 0x7643bd…7b58 | ||
| François Hollande | 2027-04-30 | 9.0% | $132 | $3.6K | B | 0x331b7a…2418 | ||
| Another person | 2027-04-30 | 9.0% | $20 | $112 | B | 0xfa8fef…2f6f | ||
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 2027-04-30 | 6.0% | $588 | $613 | B | 0x3864d6…9ab8 | ||
| Jordan Bardella | 2027-04-30 | 5.0% | — | $17K | B | 0xce3595…781c | ||
| Laurent Wauquiez | 2027-04-30 | 4.0% | — | $58 | B | 0xe121e4…6abe | ||
| Dominique de Villepin | 2027-04-30 | 4.0% | — | $1.1K | B | 0x24d710…f15f | ||
| François Ruffin | 2027-04-30 | 3.7% | — | $4.7K | B | 0x688510…2bdd | ||
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 2027-04-30 | 3.1% | — | $251 | B | 0xbb373a…e62e | ||
| Éric Zemmour | 2027-04-30 | 3.0% | — | $631 | B | 0x2036e2…873e | ||
| Bruno Retailleau | 2027-04-30 | 3.0% | — | $1.8K | B | 0x2908ac…0bde | ||
| Sébastien Lecornu | 2027-04-30 | 2.7% | — | $77 | B | 0x82b928…1d3a | ||
| Fabien Roussel | 2027-04-30 | 2.6% | — | $1.1K | B | 0xcd35d9…d983 | ||
| Michel Barnier | 2027-04-30 | 2.6% | — | $978 | B | 0xeeef27…2fc3 | ||
| David Lisnard | 2027-04-30 | 2.5% | — | $2.3K | B | 0xcc1007…a6df | ||
| Olivier Faure | 2027-04-30 | 2.0% | — | $129 | B | 0x7ad940…3350 | ||
| Élisabeth Borne | 2027-04-30 | 2.0% | $1 | $3.2K | B | 0xa9edbe…b9a1 | ||
| François Asselineau | 2027-04-30 | 1.6% | — | $1.7K | B | 0x1234e5…4f23 | ||
| Carole Delga | 2027-04-30 | 1.5% | — | $1.1K | B | 0xb34bc6…ef26 | ||
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2027-04-30 | 1.3% | — | $602 | B | 0xc858ad…83b9 | ||
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 2027-04-30 | 1.3% | — | $2.0K | B | 0x3b7dc1…6d5f | ||
| Manuel Bompard | 2027-04-30 | 1.3% | — | $1.8K | B | 0x8686cf…585f | ||
| Gérald Darmanin | 2027-04-30 | 1.2% | — | $1.0K | B | 0xf299f8…7473 | ||
| Xavier Bertrand | 2027-04-30 | 1.0% | — | $1.5K | B | 0x314a3c…82ba | ||
| Mathilde Panot | 2027-04-30 | 1.0% | — | $829 | B | 0xaddf7f…d3bd | ||
| Jean Castex | 2027-04-30 | 0.7% | — | $1.2K | B | 0xf264fb…4acc | ||
| Clémentine Autain | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $25 | $1.5K | B | 0xc239b7…3b5b | ||
| Ségolène Royal | 2027-04-30 | 0.5% | — | $2.9K | B | 0xb019e8…9df4 | ||
| Valérie Pécresse | 2027-04-30 | 0.5% | — | $1.3K | B | 0xb30df0…205c | ||
| Sarah Knafo | 2027-04-30 | 0.4% | — | $2.5K | B | 0xfe6f37…a20b | ||
| Juan Branco | 2027-04-30 | 0.3% | — | $1.1K | B | 0x936693…9d1e | ||
| Marine Tondelier | 2027-04-30 | 0.2% | — | $2.8K | B | 0xc27f87…6527 | ||
| Clémence Guetté | 2027-04-30 | 0.1% | — | $1.6K | B | 0x278908…2ddf | ||
| François Bayrou | 2027-04-30 | — | — | $12 | B | 0xaf3ced…aea8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- interieur.gouv.fr source of record venue-listed
- French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GZ9M6X8G64",
"slug": "next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round",
"question": "Will Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French Presidential Election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"france",
"presidential-election",
"2027",
"runoff"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 37,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 74001,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "interieur.gouv.fr",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "interieur.gouv.fr",
"url": "https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}