Will a new French president be elected in the next French Presidential Election? [ resolves 2027-04-30 (298D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 128 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 2027-04-30 | 31.4% | $4.2K | $765K | B | 0x812631…53aa | ||
| Jordan Bardella | 2027-04-30 | 27.0% | $4.6K | $1.10M | B | 0x116638…06be | ||
| Édouard Philippe | 2027-04-30 | 18.0% | $2.5K | $890K | B | 0x46f2f4…5ae8 | ||
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 2027-04-30 | 13.0% | $2.3K | $702K | B | 0x174ea8…2be8 | ||
| Gabriel Attal | 2027-04-30 | 4.2% | $2.5K | $1.60M | B | 0x618953…ec3e | ||
| Dominique de Villepin | 2027-04-30 | 3.5% | $9.5K | $1.37M | B | 0x20fd4c…aed1 | ||
| François Hollande | 2027-04-30 | 3.3% | $7.2K | $1.16M | B | 0xa203cc…610b | ||
| David Lisnard | 2027-04-30 | 2.4% | $4.2K | $1.34M | B | 0xce6105…8d56 | ||
| Bruno Retailleau | 2027-04-30 | 2.2% | $5.9K | $1.54M | B | 0xc32a54…be1d | ||
| Sarah Knafo | 2027-04-30 | 2.0% | $6.0K | $1.42M | B | 0x12c5b5…8b81 | ||
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 2027-04-30 | 1.8% | $7.4K | $1.10M | B | 0xcfc6e0…8e1b | ||
| Éric Zemmour | 2027-04-30 | 1.0% | $6.2K | $1.65M | B | 0x290b3a…3281 | ||
| Sébastien Lecornu | 2027-04-30 | 1.0% | $2.4K | $1.07M | B | 0x934225…013f | ||
| Gérald Darmanin | 2027-04-30 | 0.8% | $2.7K | $1.36M | B | 0xf39142…a316 | ||
| Laurent Wauquiez | 2027-04-30 | 0.7% | $130K | $3.03M | B | 0x0b4fdc…ce06 | ||
| Jean Castex | 2027-04-30 | 0.7% | $3.1K | $866K | B | 0x8c1faa…a93a | ||
| Michel Barnier | 2027-04-30 | 0.7% | $311K | $4.60M | B | 0x6ccebb…7921 | ||
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 2027-04-30 | 0.7% | $20K | $4.87M | B | 0xfd431e…0bd2 | ||
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 2027-04-30 | 0.7% | $2.6K | $1.59M | B | 0x4d5a2c…efe0 | ||
| Mathilde Panot | 2027-04-30 | 0.7% | $33K | $5.36M | B | 0x06ea9c…1a64 | ||
| Fabien Roussel | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $31K | $3.26M | B | 0x6ad632…3842 | ||
| François Asselineau | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $36K | $4.89M | B | 0xaba4bb…34fc | ||
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $36K | $3.74M | B | 0x637a24…c47a | ||
| Valérie Pécresse | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $28K | $3.42M | B | 0x2859bb…1c90 | ||
| Élisabeth Borne | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $31K | $4.64M | B | 0x0b298a…e788 | ||
| Carole Delga | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $31K | $3.85M | B | 0xcd050c…533b | ||
| Manuel Bompard | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $33K | $4.04M | B | 0xa6c384…77ae | ||
| Juan Branco | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $14K | $1.51M | B | 0xca3f48…d855 | ||
| Xavier Bertrand | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $32K | $4.48M | B | 0x06a27c…262d | ||
| François Ruffin | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $38K | $2.50M | B | 0x4c799a…867c | ||
| Marine Tondelier | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $37K | $2.93M | B | 0xf88747…dd45 | ||
| Olivier Faure | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $30K | $4.37M | B | 0xbac8d3…4b54 | ||
| Ségolène Royal | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $34K | $4.32M | B | 0x34ed4a…a136 | ||
| Clémentine Autain | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $32K | $3.90M | B | 0x2bf80d…caf0 | ||
| François Bayrou | 2027-04-30 | 0.6% | $36K | $4.79M | B | 0x3a8209…c594 | ||
| Clémence Guetté | 2027-04-30 | 0.5% | $8.0K | $3.57M | B | 0x177955…11d3 | ||
| Another person | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb79718…6332 | ||
| Person F | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xac9719…b98f | ||
| Person H | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc9763b…3293 | ||
| Person J | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf273da…8f7c | ||
| Person L | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5fa99b…2907 | ||
| Person N | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x754ab4…e920 | ||
| Person P | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd148a6…807d | ||
| Person R | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0bfccc…61ec | ||
| Person T | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x21998f…4994 | ||
| Person V | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa709ff…5be7 | ||
| Person X | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdd46ac…5ba3 | ||
| Person Z | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6f3546…075f | ||
| Person AB | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbce6c4…c907 | ||
| Person AD | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x35d374…3ba0 | ||
| Person AF | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4f7b1b…6b74 | ||
| Person AH | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5d897d…2109 | ||
| Person AJ | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc1c039…9d34 | ||
| Person AL | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x835662…652d | ||
| Person AN | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xcdf910…f1c6 | ||
| Person AP | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x866ba6…63e9 | ||
| Person AR | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0455d2…330e | ||
| Person AT | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x109bfc…0354 | ||
| Person AV | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfa4668…f7d6 | ||
| Person AX | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7b85cd…1e1a | ||
| Person AZ | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2653b3…1946 | ||
| Person BB | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x43038e…8e99 | ||
| Person BD | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x869da6…ff35 | ||
| Person BF | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc797bb…cb34 | ||
| Person BH | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xda408d…ca50 | ||
| Person BJ | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xcb126d…7e0f | ||
| Person BL | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x76377b…0e77 | ||
| Person BN | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe5ab13…9df5 | ||
| Person BP | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x66cb99…13b6 | ||
| Person BR | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf12cf4…d43e | ||
| Person BT | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xce7a6f…62ba | ||
| Person BV | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd4c516…2fdc | ||
| Person BX | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x40ba73…d2d6 | ||
| Person BZ | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc47892…99a1 | ||
| Person CB | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbd9213…270d | ||
| Person CD | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6b7c6a…7721 | ||
| Person CF | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x93f57e…c68e | ||
| Person CH | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf1a040…2721 | ||
| Person CJ | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc93d79…6f4d | ||
| Person CL | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x367add…4958 | ||
| Person CN | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x725b37…1f4b | ||
| Person CP | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8e8b98…09f8 | ||
| Person E | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x53e78c…51a6 | ||
| Person G | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xae0bce…1a12 | ||
| Person I | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf9f405…a479 | ||
| Person K | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x467ec6…e7dd | ||
| Person M | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xcb6397…7b5c | ||
| Person O | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf294fb…5115 | ||
| Person Q | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdefabb…af72 | ||
| Person S | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc2331a…6f29 | ||
| Person U | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x93670b…41c3 | ||
| Person W | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0dc499…3dc0 | ||
| Person Y | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x43c54f…f234 | ||
| Person AA | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x46d7a8…0cce | ||
| Person AC | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9d81d9…1dea | ||
| Person AE | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd3ddd5…bc52 | ||
| Person AG | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1aee11…20f0 | ||
| Person AI | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6b58f4…8a21 | ||
| Person AK | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4b6382…858e | ||
| Person AM | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6d5a07…fb29 | ||
| Person AO | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xde216b…f345 | ||
| Person AQ | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbb9fd6…8f78 | ||
| Person AS | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x215522…03d9 | ||
| Person AU | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbf4554…9598 | ||
| Person AW | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa766ec…2e91 | ||
| Person AY | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x774e20…0ccf | ||
| Person BA | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7cb1f3…ce9f | ||
| Person BC | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x794155…cabe | ||
| Person BE | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc8f1ef…eda7 | ||
| Person BG | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa638e2…81ce | ||
| Person BI | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x39c094…e0af | ||
| Person BK | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x034061…bb8f | ||
| Person BM | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x96f807…7326 | ||
| Person BO | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x734040…8034 | ||
| Person BQ | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x60acb7…b27f | ||
| Person BS | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9fdcab…3071 | ||
| Person BU | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xad033f…e7d2 | ||
| Person BW | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x47f36a…d53f | ||
| Person BY | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbd7336…73f6 | ||
| Person CA | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0580da…1d4d | ||
| Person CC | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8e9675…5106 | ||
| Person CE | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x68ff14…c925 | ||
| Person CG | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4b9a25…0985 | ||
| Person CI | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xac1d81…9a89 | ||
| Person CK | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x402158…84e8 | ||
| Person CM | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5d04dc…87a9 | ||
| Person CO | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xae4dcb…d852 | ||
| Person CQ | 2027-04-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x15240f…898d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- interieur.gouv.fr venue-listed
- French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/) from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will another person win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person F win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person H win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person J win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person L win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person N win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person P win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person R win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person T win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person V win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person X win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person Z win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AB win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AD win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AF win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AH win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AJ win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AL win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AN win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AP win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AR win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AT win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AV win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AX win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AZ win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BB win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BD win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BF win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BH win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BJ win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BL win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BN win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BP win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BR win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BT win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BV win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BX win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BZ win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CB win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CD win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CF win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CH win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CJ win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CL win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CN win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CP win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person E win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person G win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person I win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person K win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person M win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person O win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person Q win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person S win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person U win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person W win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person Y win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AA win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AC win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AE win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AG win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AI win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AK win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AM win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AO win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AQ win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AS win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AU win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AW win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person AY win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BA win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BC win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BE win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BG win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BI win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BK win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BM win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BO win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BQ win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BS win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BU win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BW win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person BY win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CA win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CC win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CE win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CG win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CI win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CK win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CM win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CO win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
| closed | Will Person CQ win the 2027 French presidential election? | polymarket | 2027-04-30 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (92 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Traders stack Le Pen 2027 conviction at 27% 27% · $363K 24h
- Polymarket prices Le Pen winning the presidency at 27%, meaningful tail risk, not consensus.
- 24h volume $363K is 29% of all-time, reflecting a fresh wave of directional interest.
- Likely catalyzed by companion ballot-eligibility spike (Spike 5) resolving her candidacy near 89%.
- Resolves after the 2027 French presidential election final round.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-french-presidential-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-french-presidential-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-french-presidential-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GD1GGR4710",
"slug": "next-french-presidential-election",
"question": "Will a new French president be elected in the next French Presidential Election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"france",
"2027",
"executive-office",
"western-europe"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 128,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 97569419,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 65,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "interieur.gouv.fr",
"url": "https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}