CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will a new French President be elected by the next scheduled French Presidential Election? [ resolves 2027-04-30 (331D) ]

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 128 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 27.0%
$13K $1.00M
C 0x116638…06be
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 16.0%
$1.8K $822K
C 0x46f2f4…5ae8
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 11.0%
$788 $651K
C 0x174ea8…2be8
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 7.0%
$10K $1.53M
C 0x618953…ec3e
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 5.0%
$2.7K $643K
C 0x812631…53aa
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 4.4%
$8.4K $1.32M
C 0x20fd4c…aed1
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 3.8%
$2.1K $1.11M
C 0xa203cc…610b
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 3.1%
$1.7K $1.49M
C 0xc32a54…be1d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 3.0%
$4.8K $1.07M
C 0xcfc6e0…8e1b
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 2.1%
$3.8K $1.39M
C 0x12c5b5…8b81
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 1.9%
$31K $1.27M
C 0xce6105…8d56
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 1.2%
$885 $1.03M
C 0x934225…013f
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 1.0%
$27K $1.60M
C 0x290b3a…3281
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.8%
$106 $823K
C 0x8c1faa…a93a
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.7%
$61K $2.57M
C 0x0b4fdc…ce06
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.7%
$4.4K $2.95M
C 0x6ad632…3842
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.7%
$41K $4.43M
C 0xaba4bb…34fc
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.7%
$8.4K $1.45M
C 0xca3f48…d855
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.7%
$35K $2.17M
C 0x4c799a…867c
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.7%
$152K $3.72M
C 0xbac8d3…4b54
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.7%
$16K $4.57M
C 0xfd431e…0bd2
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.7%
$6.6K $1.09M
C 0xf39142…a316
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.7%
$2.3K $1.53M
C 0x4d5a2c…efe0
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$35K $3.37M
C 0x637a24…c47a
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$29K $3.09M
C 0x2859bb…1c90
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$36K $4.05M
C 0x0b298a…e788
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$35K $3.32M
C 0xcd050c…533b
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$48K $3.77M
C 0xa6c384…77ae
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$30K $3.94M
C 0x06a27c…262d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$40K $2.65M
C 0xf88747…dd45
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$32K $3.82M
C 0x34ed4a…a136
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$40K $3.59M
C 0x2bf80d…caf0
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$32K $4.00M
C 0x6ccebb…7921
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$42K $4.49M
C 0x3a8209…c594
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$146K $4.80M
C 0x06ea9c…1a64
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.6%
$49K $3.25M
C 0x177955…11d3
Will another person win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xb79718…6332
Will Person F win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xac9719…b98f
Will Person H win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xc9763b…3293
Will Person J win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xf273da…8f7c
Will Person L win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x5fa99b…2907
Will Person N win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x754ab4…e920
Will Person P win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xd148a6…807d
Will Person R win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x0bfccc…61ec
Will Person T win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x21998f…4994
Will Person V win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xa709ff…5be7
Will Person X win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xdd46ac…5ba3
Will Person Z win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x6f3546…075f
Will Person AB win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xbce6c4…c907
Will Person AD win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x35d374…3ba0
Will Person AF win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x4f7b1b…6b74
Will Person AH win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x5d897d…2109
Will Person AJ win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xc1c039…9d34
Will Person AL win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x835662…652d
Will Person AN win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xcdf910…f1c6
Will Person AP win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x866ba6…63e9
Will Person AR win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x0455d2…330e
Will Person AT win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x109bfc…0354
Will Person AV win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xfa4668…f7d6
Will Person AX win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x7b85cd…1e1a
Will Person AZ win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x2653b3…1946
Will Person BB win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x43038e…8e99
Will Person BD win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x869da6…ff35
Will Person BF win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xc797bb…cb34
Will Person BH win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xda408d…ca50
Will Person BJ win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xcb126d…7e0f
Will Person BL win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x76377b…0e77
Will Person BN win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xe5ab13…9df5
Will Person BP win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x66cb99…13b6
Will Person BR win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xf12cf4…d43e
Will Person BT win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xce7a6f…62ba
Will Person BV win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xd4c516…2fdc
Will Person BX win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x40ba73…d2d6
Will Person BZ win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xc47892…99a1
Will Person CB win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xbd9213…270d
Will Person CD win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x6b7c6a…7721
Will Person CF win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x93f57e…c68e
Will Person CH win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xf1a040…2721
Will Person CJ win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xc93d79…6f4d
Will Person CL win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x367add…4958
Will Person CN win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x725b37…1f4b
Will Person CP win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x8e8b98…09f8
Will Person E win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x53e78c…51a6
Will Person G win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xae0bce…1a12
Will Person I win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xf9f405…a479
Will Person K win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x467ec6…e7dd
Will Person M win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xcb6397…7b5c
Will Person O win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xf294fb…5115
Will Person Q win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xdefabb…af72
Will Person S win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xc2331a…6f29
Will Person U win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x93670b…41c3
Will Person W win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x0dc499…3dc0
Will Person Y win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x43c54f…f234
Will Person AA win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x46d7a8…0cce
Will Person AC win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x9d81d9…1dea
Will Person AE win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xd3ddd5…bc52
Will Person AG win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x1aee11…20f0
Will Person AI win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x6b58f4…8a21
Will Person AK win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x4b6382…858e
Will Person AM win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x6d5a07…fb29
Will Person AO win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xde216b…f345
Will Person AQ win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xbb9fd6…8f78
Will Person AS win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x215522…03d9
Will Person AU win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xbf4554…9598
Will Person AW win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xa766ec…2e91
Will Person AY win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x774e20…0ccf
Will Person BA win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x7cb1f3…ce9f
Will Person BC win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x794155…cabe
Will Person BE win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xc8f1ef…eda7
Will Person BG win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xa638e2…81ce
Will Person BI win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x39c094…e0af
Will Person BK win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x034061…bb8f
Will Person BM win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x96f807…7326
Will Person BO win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x734040…8034
Will Person BQ win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x60acb7…b27f
Will Person BS win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x9fdcab…3071
Will Person BU win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xad033f…e7d2
Will Person BW win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x47f36a…d53f
Will Person BY win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xbd7336…73f6
Will Person CA win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x0580da…1d4d
Will Person CC win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x8e9675…5106
Will Person CE win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x68ff14…c925
Will Person CG win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x4b9a25…0985
Will Person CI win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xac1d81…9a89
Will Person CK win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x402158…84e8
Will Person CM win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x5d04dc…87a9
Will Person CO win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0xae4dcb…d852
Will Person CQ win the 2027 French presidential election 2027-04-30 0.0%
C 0x15240f…898d
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers uncommitted not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 128 markets · share this text
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-french-presidential-election/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-french-presidential-election.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("next-french-presidential-election")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GD1GGR4710",
  "slug": "next-french-presidential-election",
  "question": "Will a new French President be elected by the next scheduled French Presidential Election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "elections",
    "politics",
    "france",
    "2027",
    "executive-office",
    "western-europe"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 128,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 88365598,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 55,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →