Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by a specified date? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-07 ]

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 32 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to July 1,	2026-07-02	1.2%	—	$787	C	`0x336ea5…e4cc`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 2,	2026-07-03	0.2%	—	$487	C	`0x19f618…980c`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 3,	2026-07-04	0.3%	—	$682	C	`0x867afe…8408`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 4,	2026-07-05	0.1%	—	$303	C	`0x64f153…66b1`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 5,	2026-07-06	0.1%	—	$328	C	`0xc2c16d…ff67`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 6,	2026-07-07	0.2%	—	$2.7K	C	`0x7a2792…df62`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 7,	2026-07-08	0.2%	—	$807	C	`0xf8e555…c9e5`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 8,	2026-07-09	0.1%	—	$1.0K	C	`0xeb7ca4…3c53`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 9,	2026-07-10	0.1%	—	$3.7K	C	`0x62c24b…0b71`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 10,	2026-07-11	0.1%	—	$303	C	`0xdcd65e…a56c`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 11,	2026-07-12	0.1%	—	$1.2K	C	`0xdd8fbe…ebb5`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 12,	2026-07-13	0.1%	—	$1.3K	C	`0x3e2028…025f`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 13,	2026-07-14	0.2%	—	$1.4K	C	`0x74640b…2d2a`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 14,	2026-07-15	0.3%	—	$7.6K	C	`0xc6a8b5…338f`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 15,	2026-07-16	0.1%	—	$12K	C	`0x6b7f27…5553`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 16,	2026-07-17	0.8%	—	$9.3K	C	`0x0a6112…1713`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17,	2026-07-18	0.8%	—	$76K	C	`0xabeb81…17d6`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 18,	2026-07-19	0.1%	—	$6.2K	C	`0x23924f…afff`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 19,	2026-07-20	0.2%	—	$4.3K	C	`0xc137d0…16ee`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 20,	2026-07-21	0.3%	—	$5.6K	C	`0x89acbe…5b1c`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 21,	2026-07-22	0.3%	—	$11K	C	`0x7ecd42…8bf5`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 22,	2026-07-23	0.7%	$25	$6.1K	C	`0x6bd76e…db67`
There be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31,	2026-07-31	94.1%	$752	$119K	C	`0x965663…0379`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 25,	2026-07-31	2.0%	—	$4.1K	C	`0xd8c099…918b`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 24,	2026-07-31	1.9%	—	$11K	C	`0x9714f9…edf8`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 23,	2026-07-31	0.9%	$20	$8.3K	C	`0x59ea0d…bfbf`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 27,	2026-07-31	0.7%	$141	$3.6K	C	`0x177d49…c5f7`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30,	2026-07-31	0.7%	$284	$21K	C	`0x6a3888…53ff`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 26,	2026-07-31	0.6%	—	$4.2K	C	`0x5bbb0e…1517`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 29,	2026-07-31	0.4%	—	$7.9K	C	`0xc5302a…ff60`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 31,	2026-07-31	0.2%	—	$7.1K	C	`0xe9d54a…2530`
The next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 28,	2026-07-31	0.1%	—	$7.0K	C	`0x03aec4…e26f`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 32 markets · share this text

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

sources (2) · stated precedence rule

official information from Google source of record from rules text · editorial
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260626213101460/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260626213101460`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260626213101460")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CCLTG80K59",
  "slug": "next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260626213101460",
  "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by a specified date?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "google",
    "gemini",
    "model-release"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 32,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 346307,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 57,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "official information from Google",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →