Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 4, 2026? [ resolves 2026-06-30 (27D) ]
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 30 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 19.4% | $5.7K | $5.7K | C | 0x3984d4…5681 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 12.0% | $2.0K | $2.1K | C | 0x229263…662d | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 18, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 10.0% | $1.4K | $1.5K | C | 0x2edbf0…5f58 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 9.0% | $2.4K | $2.5K | C | 0xb3fbc9…d87a | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 9.0% | $1.9K | $1.9K | C | 0xe1be13…3b1a | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 17, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 8.0% | $1.9K | $2.0K | C | 0x1fb454…950c | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 11, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 7.0% | $1.2K | $1.2K | C | 0x588c79…8f42 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 6.0% | $2.1K | $2.2K | C | 0xe6399e…c964 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 5.0% | $1.5K | $1.5K | C | 0xed7311…5b3a | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 5.0% | $1.0K | $1.1K | C | 0xf6b8eb…4587 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 3.1% | $1.3K | $1.3K | C | 0xf8e0bb…e1ce | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 22, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 2.0% | $1.0K | $1.1K | C | 0x838bc7…873e | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 19, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 1.8% | $1.5K | $1.6K | C | 0xe60f3c…eee8 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 13, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 1.1% | $2.1K | $2.2K | C | 0x1bed3f…73d1 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 21, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 1.0% | $775 | $827 | C | 0x506dc9…6da9 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 1.0% | $712 | $764 | C | 0x610468…1afb | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 14, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.9% | $1.7K | $1.8K | C | 0x13145a…e15f | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 20, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.7% | $771 | $857 | C | 0x5fc056…1d2b | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 10, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.5% | $1.0K | $1.1K | C | 0x323e4c…9161 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.5% | $1.4K | $1.5K | C | 0xfc4a21…37a4 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to June 2, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.4% | $596 | $646 | C | 0x42daab…b18b | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 28, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.4% | $692 | $825 | C | 0x69acbb…c61f | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 8, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.3% | $688 | $741 | C | 0x99c6c5…e5cb | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 6, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.3% | $1.3K | $1.4K | C | 0x9661a3…0e28 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 15, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.3% | $764 | $814 | C | 0x303f4a…ce47 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 7, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.3% | $1.0K | $1.1K | C | 0x349c6c…0fe4 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.3% | $899 | $952 | C | 0x3d932c…c8db | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 27, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.2% | $735 | $787 | C | 0x87d843…6975 | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 3, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.1% | $2.1K | $2.1K | C | 0xd7b35b…911d | ||
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 4, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.1% | $8.3K | $8.3K | C | 0x7b3778…9cfb |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RVJ0PPQ188",
"slug": "next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt",
"question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 4, 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"google",
"gemini",
"large-language-models",
"tech-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 30,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 52383,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}