Will Friedrich Merz become the next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 34 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thorsten Frei | 2026-12-31 | 96.8% | $1.1K | $12K | C | 0xa24353…5d8f | ||
| Günter Krings | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $1 | $619 | C | 0xd6c323…7d64 | ||
| Carsten Linnemann | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $184 | $1.2K | C | 0x24fb44…3f5c | ||
| Nina Warken | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | — | $479 | C | 0x107009…f7b6 | ||
| Alexander Hoffmann | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | — | $828 | C | 0xc6c29c…63c5 | ||
| Alexander Dobrindt | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $798 | C | 0xeba0d6…b2a0 | ||
| Michael Brand | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $545 | C | 0xb60c3d…78fe | ||
| Someone else | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf1983c…22ac | ||
| [Placeholder 1] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7ae9c9…59b9 | ||
| [Placeholder 2] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd497bb…a4fe | ||
| [Placeholder 3] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf23bc1…0bf3 | ||
| [Placeholder 4] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3ba5c4…9e80 | ||
| [Placeholder 5] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xca67b4…2d2e | ||
| [Placeholder 6] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1a6b2a…d0c2 | ||
| [Placeholder 7] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x958d69…09e5 | ||
| [Placeholder 8] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x94f188…00c4 | ||
| [Placeholder 9] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xadb705…1a99 | ||
| [Placeholder 10] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb17470…ed1d | ||
| [Placeholder 11] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7055bb…81dd | ||
| [Placeholder 12] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1d93d1…8d42 | ||
| [Placeholder 13] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x11fcc3…eac4 | ||
| [Placeholder 14] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x721143…ec00 | ||
| [Placeholder 15] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb77f8a…bdaa | ||
| [Placeholder 16] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfdabe8…f2e8 | ||
| [Placeholder 17] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8a55e0…def8 | ||
| [Placeholder 18] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc1c393…ed82 | ||
| [Placeholder 19] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc3efd9…0c0b | ||
| [Placeholder 20] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x563444…4a67 | ||
| [Placeholder 21] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xba7d8e…83bd | ||
| [Placeholder 22] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x388a8c…e06b | ||
| [Placeholder 23] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa3d8ec…58f4 | ||
| [Placeholder 24] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa62cf5…ba59 | ||
| [Placeholder 25] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5c1039…04cd | ||
| [Placeholder 26] | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x215e40…4aea |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).
This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn.
Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.
If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/ sources (1)
- reuters.com venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-leader-of-germanys-union-cducsu-20260718204733993/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-leader-of-germanys-union-cducsu-20260718204733993 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-leader-of-germanys-union-cducsu-20260718204733993") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-R22FHX5BR1",
"slug": "next-leader-of-germanys-union-cducsu-20260718204733993",
"question": "Will Friedrich Merz become the next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"germany",
"cdu-csu",
"party-leadership",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 34,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16926,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "reuters.com",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}