Will the next leader out of power before 2027 be someone other than Orban? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 24 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Gustavo Petro be the next leader	2026-12-31	58.0%	$243	$113K	C	`0x45bdbc…8d57`
Keir Starmer be the next leader	2026-12-31	22.0%	$530	$47K	C	`0xc8aaa8…7708`
Friedrich Merz be the next leader	2026-12-31	3.0%	$929	$33K	C	`0x4900c2…5943`
Sanae Takaichi be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.9%	$90	$26K	C	`0x53f01b…7ce3`
Pedro Sánchez be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.8%	$266	$38K	C	`0x0aa333…f84a`
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.6%	$85	$27K	C	`0x765ef4…9379`
Anthony Albanese be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.3%	—	$24K	C	`0xe2dd4a…154e`
Vladimir Putin be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.3%	$105	$32K	C	`0xed2b27…42a4`
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.3%	$105	$29K	C	`0x8c3334…c9a4`
Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.2%	$111	$26K	C	`0xeca367…4530`
Emmanuel Macron be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.1%	—	$28K	C	`0x2da5c3…edad`
Xi Jinping be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.1%	$85	$21K	C	`0xd258e8…9578`
Gavin Newsom be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.1%	—	$33K	C	`0x65f8da…5cc9`
Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.1%	$85	$28K	C	`0x416c70…253b`
Kim Jong Un be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.0%	—	$28K	C	`0xa8e956…d56a`
Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.0%	$90	$34K	C	`0x1cd1a6…e9b7`
Javier Milei be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.0%	—	$32K	C	`0x2a5982…9670`
Donald Trump be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.0%	$106	$27K	C	`0x55118d…6f52`
Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.0%	$151	$34K	C	`0xa1b919…40aa`
Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.0%	—	$28K	C	`0xa92264…e916`
Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.0%	$170	$22K	C	`0xaffa29…392b`
Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.0%	$136	$30K	C	`0x068b8f…cd7b`
No listed leader be	2026-12-31	0.0%	$138	$49K	C	`0x84a456…02f6`
Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader	2026-12-31	0.0%	$87	$24K	C	`0x2e396a…881b`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 24 markets · share this text

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

sources (1)

a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?	polymarket	`2026-12-31`	`0%`
NO	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	polymarket	`2026-12-31`	`0%`
NO	Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?	polymarket	`2026-12-31`	`0%`
NO	Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	polymarket	`2026-12-31`	`0%`
NO	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	polymarket	`2026-12-31`	`0%`
NO	Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?	polymarket	`2026-12-31`	`0%`
NO	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	polymarket	`2026-12-31`	`0%`
NO	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	polymarket	`2026-12-31`	`0%`
NO	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	polymarket	`2026-12-31`	`0%`
NO	Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	polymarket	`2026-12-31`	`0%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (10 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-07-11T09:24:55+00:00 volume-spike
Heavy flows defend the Kim Jong Un leadership status quo 0% · $35K 24h
- Polymarket holds Kim Jong Un leadership departure at 0%, reflecting market consensus of near-zero near-term regime change.
- 26% of all-time volume in 24h, $35K, is a modest but notable acceleration for a geopolitical tail-risk contract.
- North Korea health speculation or a state-media appearance cycle may have drawn fresh attention to the contract.
- Resolves before end of 2026; 0% price implies no credible intelligence leak or succession signal in current market.
2026-07-10T10:50:20+00:00 volume-spike
Heavy flows defend the 'no early exit' read on listed leaders 0% · $2.5M 24h
- Contract at 0%, market asserts at least one listed leader has already departed before 2027.
- 24h volume $2.52M is 28% of all-time; large but not exhaustive, suggesting continued interest ahead.
- A confirmed leadership departure event likely triggered mass settlement flow into the losing side.
- Resolution date is pre-2027; at 0%, the market has effectively called the question closed.
2026-07-09T10:57:00+00:00 volume-spike
Díaz-Canel departure before 2027 seen as remote by heavy flows 0% · $615K 24h
- Price at 0%, market assigns no realistic probability to a Díaz-Canel exit this year.
- $615K in 24h is 49% of all-time; substantial two-sided conviction collapsing to zero.
- Cuba's economic and political stress has drawn speculative positioning; volume reflects washout of that thesis.
- Resolves before 2027; desks appear to be clearing Cuba regime-change exposure.
2026-07-08T10:14:29+00:00 volume-spike
Capital writes off Abbas departure before 2027 0% · $5.2M 24h
- Polymarket prices zero probability, market sees no credible near-term transition mechanism.
- 24h volume $5.2M is 75% of all-time handle, signaling an exceptional, concentrated positioning event.
- Surge likely reflects a specific rumor or report that traders are actively fading to zero.
- Resolves before end of 2026; 0% price means fresh capital is absorbing the 'yes' side entirely.
2026-07-07T10:52:51+00:00 volume-spike
Capital writes off Abbas leadership transition risk before 2027 0% · $1.3M 24h
- 0% price means Polymarket traders have collectively dismissed any near-term Abbas exit scenario.
- $1.33M in 24h, 62% of all-time volume, is an aggressive mass-repricing event at zero.
- Fresh flows at 0% suggest a recent development (health update, political stabilization) deflated the thesis.
- Contract resolves YES if Abbas ceases to lead the Palestinian Authority before 2027.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2FLCV9PNS4",
  "slug": "next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",
  "question": "Will the next leader out of power before 2027 be someone other than Orban?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "leadership-transitions",
    "executive-power",
    "2026",
    "electoral-politics"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 24,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 812082,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 38,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →