Who will be the next Mayor of Johannesburg? [ resolves 2026-11-05 (105D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 42 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Chikane | 2026-11-05 | 46.1% | $4.0K | $14K | B | 0xbf1879…d084 | ||
| Helen Zille | 2026-11-05 | 44.0% | $252 | $26K | B | 0xe1a717…6382 | ||
| Herman Mashaba | 2026-11-05 | 5.2% | — | $13K | B | 0x386c34…cc6a | ||
| Loyiso Masuku | 2026-11-05 | 1.4% | $20 | $18K | B | 0x1baa29…4607 | ||
| David Makhura | 2026-11-05 | 1.4% | — | $1.1K | B | 0x7f4b4b…387f | ||
| Kenny Kunene | 2026-11-05 | 0.4% | — | $1.4K | B | 0xf17531…9a3d | ||
| Person C | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2df4fc…7bf9 | ||
| Person D | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6c989b…79b5 | ||
| Person E | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x97bbe4…a175 | ||
| Person F | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x59f695…7965 | ||
| Person G | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc82f45…a143 | ||
| Person H | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4e31ad…1397 | ||
| Person I | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x308bab…f9e8 | ||
| Person J | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdc93f4…4ee9 | ||
| Person K | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x743a81…3cbb | ||
| Person L | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x18277e…4ad3 | ||
| Person M | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x97969d…2142 | ||
| Person N | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xce260d…2d68 | ||
| Person O | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x883275…e33b | ||
| Person P | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb73547…02b1 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xaa9e4c…5ed2 | ||
| Person R | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6385f9…6bd1 | ||
| Person S | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x27d1a0…3cd4 | ||
| Person T | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x999ecb…c797 | ||
| Person U | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x63f5cc…13a9 | ||
| Person V | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x548fef…0332 | ||
| Person W | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc1c067…6cd1 | ||
| Person X | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x727058…ecdb | ||
| Person Y | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa2a79f…b451 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0fa9d6…112e | ||
| Person AA | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9c2da6…d9fe | ||
| Person AB | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1a7563…490d | ||
| Person AC | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x22464d…43eb | ||
| Person AD | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa31906…0cbe | ||
| Person AE | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1e3ee0…f818 | ||
| Person AF | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x20c84c…90f7 | ||
| Person AG | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4550dd…1a26 | ||
| Person AH | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x20a9b7…d672 | ||
| Person AI | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x55ccdf…09a7 | ||
| Person AJ | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x43e0ad…b19d | ||
| Person AK | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6d63e5…c664 | ||
| Someone else | 2026-11-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9e5901…73ec |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Johannesburg following the 2026 South African municipal elections.
A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Johannesburg City Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
- elections.org.za source of record venue-listed
- Electoral Commission of South Africa from rules text · editorial
- official information from the government of South Africa from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-mayor-of-johannesburg-20260609220245506/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-mayor-of-johannesburg-20260609220245506 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-mayor-of-johannesburg-20260609220245506") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y2F5PHM6H5",
"slug": "next-mayor-of-johannesburg-20260609220245506",
"question": "Who will be the next Mayor of Johannesburg?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"south-africa",
"municipal-government",
"johannesburg",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 42,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 73125,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 77,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://elections.org.za",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "elections.org.za",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "elections.org.za",
"url": "https://elections.org.za",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Electoral Commission of South Africa",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official information from the government of South Africa",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}