Who will be the next President of Estonia? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2027-01 ]
Will Mart Helme be the next President of Estonia?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 36 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Person A | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x11ba1f…834f | ||
| Person B | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xae3d54…8f68 | ||
| Person C | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x020875…6cdb | ||
| Person D | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9d8de7…240e | ||
| Person E | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0252f3…682d | ||
| Person F | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa74584…1cf9 | ||
| Person G | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb65d23…7b8d | ||
| Person H | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4dba17…f3bc | ||
| Person I | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x20bc26…65bb | ||
| Person J | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc79b02…02b0 | ||
| Person K | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd8633f…03b2 | ||
| Person L | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7bfe27…d506 | ||
| Person M | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x101fe9…2e95 | ||
| Person N | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6fa911…b95a | ||
| Person O | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfe7f7b…331c | ||
| Person P | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x646f27…8d28 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7bcb9d…bab0 | ||
| Person R | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbc6e12…72fe | ||
| Person S | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc4a53a…301c | ||
| Person T | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x65ed08…d4b0 | ||
| Person U | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0ab282…82d1 | ||
| Person V | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3d77f2…2293 | ||
| Person W | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1bd8b7…eb1a | ||
| Person X | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbf11a1…7764 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xca5efe…ae9b | ||
| Person Z | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8cf830…a62c | ||
| Someone else | 2026-09-02 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1a60b3…6210 | ||
| Ülle Madise | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | $1.8K | $11K | C | 0x2a5b9d…15f6 | ||
| Mart Helme | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | $10 | $166 | C | 0xb83bad…fe05 | ||
| Indrek Laul | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | $10 | $181 | C | 0xc4a2ee…bbe2 | ||
| Riho Ühtegi | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | $16 | $158 | C | 0x23656a…769a | ||
| Indrek Tarand | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | $10 | $138 | C | 0xceb0a9…43da | ||
| Jonatan Vseviov | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | $10 | $232 | C | 0x200448…7968 | ||
| Hannes Hanso | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | $10 | $215 | C | 0xe561ab…94fa | ||
| Riina Kionka | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | $10 | $180 | C | 0xc1705f…14fe | ||
| Maive Rute | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | $301 | $609 | C | 0x7ad5b8…0595 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Estonia is currently scheduled to indirectly elect a new president on September 2, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of President of Estonia by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in as President of Estonia. Any interim or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such President takes office by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Estonia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
Government of Estonia from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Mart Helme be the next President of Estonia? | polymarket | 2026-10-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Indrek Laul be the next President of Estonia? | polymarket | 2026-10-12 | 0% |
| YES | Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia? | polymarket | 2026-10-12 | 100% |
| NO | Will Hannes Hanso be the next President of Estonia? | polymarket | 2026-10-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Riina Kionka be the next President of Estonia? | polymarket | 2026-10-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Maive Rute be the next President of Estonia? | polymarket | 2026-10-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Riho Ühtegi be the next President of Estonia? | polymarket | 2026-10-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Indrek Tarand be the next President of Estonia? | polymarket | 2026-10-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jonatan Vseviov be the next President of Estonia? | polymarket | 2026-10-12 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (9 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-president-of-estonia-20260727225811942/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-president-of-estonia-20260727225811942 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-president-of-estonia-20260727225811942") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VS2WPL0QH5",
"slug": "next-president-of-estonia-20260727225811942",
"question": "Who will be the next President of Estonia?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"estonia",
"presidential-election",
"2026",
"head-of-state"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 36,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12480,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Government of Estonia",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}