Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain? [ resolves 2028-03-31 (617D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 58 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Núñez Feijóo | 2028-03-31 | 81.0% | $20 | $21K | C | 0x97c0b1…1f23 | ||
| Pedro Sánchez | 2028-03-31 | 13.8% | $75 | $11K | C | 0x91e208…4be6 | ||
| Isabel Díaz Ayuso | 2028-03-31 | 3.0% | $20 | $4.1K | C | 0x705aef…55ed | ||
| Santiago Abascal | 2028-03-31 | 1.7% | $20 | $3.4K | C | 0xeab5e7…258d | ||
| Carlos Cuerpo | 2028-03-31 | 0.3% | $20 | $1.8K | C | 0xc574bd…36b0 | ||
| María Jesús Montero | 2028-03-31 | 0.2% | $20 | $3.2K | C | 0x48e2b6…bb3a | ||
| Yolanda Díaz | 2028-03-31 | 0.2% | $20 | $2.4K | C | 0x1cfe69…38e6 | ||
| Ernest Urtasun | 2028-03-31 | 0.2% | $20 | $2.5K | C | 0x207354…7179 | ||
| Miguel Tellado | 2028-03-31 | 0.2% | $20 | $3.2K | C | 0xd3b68c…a4b9 | ||
| Ester Muñoz | 2028-03-31 | 0.2% | $20 | $2.4K | C | 0xd8c72c…2a37 | ||
| Pepa Millán | 2028-03-31 | 0.2% | $20 | $2.5K | C | 0x3b72e7…4003 | ||
| Cuca Gamarra | 2028-03-31 | 0.2% | $20 | $3.1K | C | 0x8d2ef6…15e1 | ||
| Carles Puigdemont | 2028-03-31 | 0.2% | $20 | $4.1K | C | 0xa692ca…e5c0 | ||
| Aitor Esteban | 2028-03-31 | 0.1% | $20 | $2.1K | C | 0x3be183…9b64 | ||
| Borja Sémper | 2028-03-31 | 0.1% | — | $2.4K | C | 0x781b27…2dbf | ||
| Óscar Puente | 2028-03-31 | 0.1% | $20 | $1.4K | C | 0x8971b8…3abd | ||
| Person D | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x78550f…4206 | ||
| Person E | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1a9857…01c0 | ||
| Person F | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf6fe0b…4b22 | ||
| Person G | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x922a78…e721 | ||
| Person H | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x826997…7ccd | ||
| Person I | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc058ed…19d3 | ||
| Person J | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2ed5b2…33a8 | ||
| Person K | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6cbea5…12bd | ||
| Person L | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd3bd93…2f93 | ||
| Person M | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x67d981…dc10 | ||
| Person N | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf6ba07…7180 | ||
| Person O | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x94ea4e…c009 | ||
| Person P | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc409c9…8b4a | ||
| Person Q | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbf0873…31b4 | ||
| Person R | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe32dd5…93df | ||
| Person S | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7efd78…c4de | ||
| Person T | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe63e13…530c | ||
| Person U | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x186c48…4aca | ||
| Person V | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x79540e…1110 | ||
| Person W | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf00bf2…9ba9 | ||
| Person X | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7367fe…0f7c | ||
| Person Y | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x21b0f9…6bd8 | ||
| Person Z | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x034212…8a10 | ||
| Person AA | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe0ef50…32d3 | ||
| Person AB | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x74d06d…d20a | ||
| Person AC | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2bbef9…d314 | ||
| Person AD | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x18c593…c290 | ||
| Person AE | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9a53f7…4632 | ||
| Person AF | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9701a2…3c45 | ||
| Person AG | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4a4475…d76b | ||
| Person AH | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd9f886…52d8 | ||
| Person AI | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6eeb62…d67e | ||
| Person AJ | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbdae44…3c04 | ||
| Person AK | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc9229b…078b | ||
| Person AL | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3150bb…fdd2 | ||
| Person AM | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3d754f…2079 | ||
| Person AN | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdcabad…fd8d | ||
| Person AO | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xff8e1c…bc1e | ||
| Person AP | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe1189b…4a18 | ||
| Person AQ | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2e6998…b81f | ||
| Person AR | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x03a5a7…7bb4 | ||
| Someone else | 2028-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x690869…ecea |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- Government of Spain from rules text · editorial
- credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-prime-minister-of-spain-20260625005215443/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-prime-minister-of-spain-20260625005215443 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-prime-minister-of-spain-20260625005215443") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D9KHM803Y2",
"slug": "next-prime-minister-of-spain-20260625005215443",
"question": "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"spain",
"executive-leadership",
"2028"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 58,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 70658,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Government of Spain",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}