Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks occur by 2026? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2026-08 ]
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 26, | 2026-06-27 | 0.1% | — | $117K | C | 0x1dbce4…0a3b | ||
| July 3, | 2026-07-06 | 0.1% | — | $2.48M | C | 0x545e1b…8383 | ||
| July 10, | 2026-07-11 | 0.2% | — | $1.93M | C | 0x79c850…29a7 | ||
| July 17, | 2026-07-18 | 0.1% | — | $968K | C | 0x325d2f…64cd | ||
| July 31, | 2026-07-31 | 7.0% | $41K | $1.50M | C | 0xb838ca…48ec | ||
| August 31, | 2026-08-31 | 39.0% | $9.1K | $166K | C | 0xbdc082…87bc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks sources (3)
- aljazeera.com venue-listed
- official information from the governments of the United States and Iran from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260623022722982/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260623022722982 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260623022722982") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5Q4MF89VS0",
"slug": "next-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260623022722982",
"question": "Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks occur by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"us-iran-diplomacy",
"trump",
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7162876,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "aljazeera.com",
"url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from the governments of the United States and Iran",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}