Will there be a new Secretary-General of the United Nations by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 31 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebeca Grynspan | 2026-12-31 | 45.0% | $938 | $11K | C | 0xe435a4…0b34 | ||
| Rafael Grossi | 2026-12-31 | 41.0% | $492 | $23K | C | 0x109940…83f1 | ||
| Michelle Bachelet | 2026-12-31 | 4.3% | $85 | $10K | C | 0x2e2a3b…13b7 | ||
| Macky Sall | 2026-12-31 | 3.7% | $236 | $118K | C | 0xce1126…adde | ||
| Another individual | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8dc1af…63f1 | ||
| Person A | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x91faa7…fa50 | ||
| Person B | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5b3387…f733 | ||
| Person C | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbe5ed0…b141 | ||
| Person D | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3468ba…1ed2 | ||
| Person E | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe0ecd1…92b8 | ||
| Person F | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x56b837…06c9 | ||
| Person G | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6b73dd…00b8 | ||
| Person H | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8737d0…78ab | ||
| Person I | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xde24eb…5275 | ||
| Person J | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x60e654…5a38 | ||
| Person K | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdfd76c…c143 | ||
| Person L | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xda5109…c15a | ||
| Person M | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x897dd7…4eae | ||
| Person N | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb9bf2c…713a | ||
| Person O | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf12a2e…82f4 | ||
| Person P | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7504a8…d395 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x725a89…20a6 | ||
| Person R | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe187f0…c1d6 | ||
| Person S | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xec5928…7abd | ||
| Person T | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8e834a…0ea8 | ||
| Person U | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb49242…9023 | ||
| Person V | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x108e09…ea0b | ||
| Person W | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x47726b…552c | ||
| Person X | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x30a1db…9495 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xefe6c7…efa4 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3f0aa7…a6e8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the United Nations from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-secretary-general-of-the-united-nations/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-secretary-general-of-the-united-nations |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-secretary-general-of-the-united-nations") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CWWBW14962",
"slug": "next-secretary-general-of-the-united-nations",
"question": "Will there be a new Secretary-General of the United Nations by the end of 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"international-organizations",
"un-leadership",
"executive-selection",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 31,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 162657,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the United Nations",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}