Will the New Jersey 2nd Congressional District House election winner be determined by November 3, 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 79.0% | — | $9.1K | B | 0x72efd6…9a4a | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 30.0% | — | $8.0K | B | 0xda6443…7b58 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x865030…7d5b | ||
| Will A win the NJ-02 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa1f8f6…3217 | ||
| Will B win the NJ-02 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x848fd3…646a | ||
| Will C win the NJ-02 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x275481…6339 | ||
| Will D win the NJ-02 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x730189…abe4 | ||
| Will E win the NJ-02 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdd1580…ef23 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- Democrats trail in NJ-02 with odds at 30% 30% · $44K 24h
- 30% price marks Democrats as underdogs in New Jersey's 2nd congressional district heading into the 2026 midterm.
- $44K in 24h is 40% of all-time Polymarket volume on this seat, outsized daily activity for a single House race.
- Fresh money into a competitive House district at this odds level points to new polling or candidate news driving reassessment.
- Resolves on the certified winner of the NJ-02 general election.
- NJ-02 Democratic House bid holds at 25% in heavy early action 25% · $42K 24h
- At 25%, the market prices Republicans as heavy favorites to hold NJ-02.
- 60% of all-time contract volume cleared in one session, exceptionally concentrated.
- NJ-02 is a competitive lean-GOP district; fresh money is stress-testing the Democratic upside.
- Resolves on the 2026 NJ-02 House election result.
- Buyers back Democrats in NJ-02 despite steep 21% odds 21% · $37K 24h
- Democrats sit at 21% in NJ-02, market treats this as a lean-Republican hold.
- 56% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours, the highest all-time share in this batch.
- NJ-02 fresh attention at long-shot odds may signal a candidate development or district-level data shift.
- Resolves on the NJ-02 general election outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nj-02-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nj-02-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nj-02-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T2ZK5ZDTH1",
"slug": "nj-02-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the New Jersey 2nd Congressional District House election winner be determined by November 3, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026-us-midterms",
"house-elections",
"new-jersey",
"congressional-races"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17088,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}