Will the NJ-08 House seat be won by a Republican in the next election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 95.0% | — | $9.4K | B | 0xb1589d…bd9e | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $5.2K | B | 0x0bb1b9…2576 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x04022d…afab | ||
| Will A win the NJ-08 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2f8b0c…ddd2 | ||
| Will B win the NJ-08 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1b7b1f…acc4 | ||
| Will C win the NJ-08 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x387bca…114f | ||
| Will D win the NJ-08 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x341635…191e | ||
| Will E win the NJ-08 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9b63b5…89ac |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- Heavy trading bets NJ-08 stays a Democratic lock 1% · $30K 24h
- Market prices Republicans at 1%, near-zero chance of flipping this deep-blue seat.
- 24h volume of $30K is 76% of all-time, the dominant single-session bet on this contract.
- Fresh attention likely tracks October House-race polling cycles with 29 days to Election Day.
- Resolves on November 2026 general election result for NJ-08.
- NJ-08 stays a near-certain Democratic hold 1% · $30K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republican win at just 1%, implying NJ-08 is all but locked for Democrats.
- 24h volume of $29.9K equals 76% of all-time, nearly the entire contract history traded in one session.
- Surge at 1% suggests fresh capital arriving to sell Republican chances into near-zero, not to buy.
- Resolves on NJ-08 House race outcome; no realistic GOP path priced.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nj-08-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nj-08-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nj-08-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MGFVWYRY00",
"slug": "nj-08-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the NJ-08 House seat be won by a Republican in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"new-jersey",
"2026",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14656,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}