Will the Nobel Peace Prize be awarded to a specific entity in 2026? [ resolves 2026-10 – 2027-04 ]
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 71 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Person A | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf43c1e…15c9 | ||
| Person B | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x72f08e…8f79 | ||
| Person C | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x813a4c…63ff | ||
| Person D | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd2b5b5…e543 | ||
| Person E | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xacdaff…4dd6 | ||
| Person F | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x09a534…24e1 | ||
| Person G | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa8dc2a…eb0e | ||
| Person H | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x54abc8…4b99 | ||
| Person I | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5b6a87…6987 | ||
| Person J | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x203d26…b325 | ||
| Person K | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5ac101…7ba3 | ||
| Person L | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa106db…b560 | ||
| Person M | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x440ec6…6baa | ||
| Person N | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9a302a…d76f | ||
| Person O | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x15a0ea…c560 | ||
| Person P | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3d6175…4242 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf77ee7…1204 | ||
| Person R | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0a8de3…76d9 | ||
| Person S | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xeb09f7…9702 | ||
| Person T | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0061e3…896b | ||
| Person U | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0f6205…5831 | ||
| Person V | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x60826c…b726 | ||
| Person W | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5c514c…882f | ||
| Person X | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x11fc8d…d85e | ||
| Person Y | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5cb758…eae5 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf8faf3…a99d | ||
| Person AA | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xff539b…6595 | ||
| Person AB | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x35b794…4d24 | ||
| Person AC | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x87934f…4156 | ||
| Person AD | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2f860b…42be | ||
| Person AE | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2fb5c9…248c | ||
| Person AF | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8e3631…7038 | ||
| Person AG | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5418d7…3007 | ||
| Person AH | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc42ed1…0c35 | ||
| Person AI | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa7b8dc…f5d9 | ||
| Person AJ | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe76ab6…609e | ||
| Person AK | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf42438…3993 | ||
| Person AL | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2919aa…31fe | ||
| Person AM | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7b81b7…2266 | ||
| Person AN | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa3ee1e…7819 | ||
| Person AO | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x479165…f72a | ||
| Person AP | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb6fb90…3d06 | ||
| Person AQ | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc7358f…df04 | ||
| Person AR | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe8ef38…ab97 | ||
| Person AS | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd2d35e…97eb | ||
| Person AT | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x32cd65…9482 | ||
| Person AU | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xae854d…3f5f | ||
| Person AV | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf91658…5656 | ||
| Person AW | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x26cbe7…d417 | ||
| Person AX | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0de8fd…4f29 | ||
| Any other person or organization | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9d0104…9423 | ||
| Donald Trump | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $18K | $4.26M | A | 0x962e5b…945f | ||
| Pope Leo XIV | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $2.1K | $807K | A | 0xec2e51…4bfc | ||
| Yulia Navalnaya | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $305 | $285K | A | 0xae76ef…14ec | ||
| Julian Assange | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | — | $849K | A | 0x0cfec4…9af5 | ||
| Greta Thunberg | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $120 | $1.45M | A | 0xdd84a0…1c4e | ||
| Elon Musk | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $569 | $1.16M | A | 0x971150…d5af | ||
| UNRWA | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $764 | $2.04M | A | 0xb3fefe…8815 | ||
| The International Court of Justice | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $104 | $897K | A | 0x36081a…f5d1 | ||
| António Guterres | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | — | $616K | A | 0xb9212b…0e1f | ||
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $3.6K | $774K | A | 0xe2cd08…eaa5 | ||
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $4.4K | $781K | A | 0x720e72…a6eb | ||
| Vladimir Putin | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $158 | $895K | A | 0x1e7a7b…e2df | ||
| Khaled Mashal | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $112 | $865K | A | 0x05bd10…6fcc | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $275 | $682K | A | 0x73ea54…69f7 | ||
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $552 | $1.05M | A | 0x32146c…9e5f | ||
| Xi Jinping | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $49 | $1.43M | A | 0x7f347e…69b5 | ||
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $32 | $1.26M | A | 0x0d5851…50bb | ||
| Charlie Kirk | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $80 | $1.24M | A | 0xda9e24…b1cb | ||
| Mohammed bin Salman | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | $1.8K | $1.16M | A | 0x8f77f9…47d0 | ||
| Narendra Modi | 2027-04-01 | 0.0% | — | $681K | A | 0xbe70d1…b6cd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · single authority
Norwegian Nobel Committee committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (20 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-32G70C4SZ5",
"slug": "nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139",
"question": "Will the Nobel Peace Prize be awarded to a specific entity in 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"nobel-peace-prize",
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"international-awards",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 71,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23191016,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Norwegian Nobel Committee",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Norwegian Nobel Committee",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}