Will the Nobel Peace Prize be awarded in 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-10 (129D) ]
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 71 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 11.0% | $356 | $535K | C | 0xe2cd08…eaa5 | ||
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 8.9% | $924 | $1.96M | C | 0xb3fefe…8815 | ||
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 8.0% | $12K | $3.54M | C | 0x962e5b…945f | ||
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 8.0% | $1.4K | $179K | C | 0xae76ef…14ec | ||
| Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 4.3% | $3.2K | $631K | C | 0x720e72…a6eb | ||
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 3.7% | $1.1K | $731K | C | 0xec2e51…4bfc | ||
| Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 2.2% | $2.4K | $567K | C | 0xbe70d1…b6cd | ||
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 2.0% | $2.7K | $786K | C | 0x36081a…f5d1 | ||
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 1.9% | $4.1K | $1.27M | C | 0xdd84a0…1c4e | ||
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 1.1% | $4.1K | $1.08M | C | 0x0d5851…50bb | ||
| Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 1.0% | $7.3K | $1.24M | C | 0x7f347e…69b5 | ||
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.9% | $6.1K | $836K | C | 0x32146c…9e5f | ||
| Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.8% | $7.3K | $1.02M | C | 0xda9e24…b1cb | ||
| Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.7% | $503 | $521K | C | 0xb9212b…0e1f | ||
| Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.7% | $6.7K | $634K | C | 0x0cfec4…9af5 | ||
| Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.7% | $6.9K | $872K | C | 0x971150…d5af | ||
| Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.5% | $6.8K | $589K | C | 0x05bd10…6fcc | ||
| Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.5% | $7.3K | $948K | C | 0x8f77f9…47d0 | ||
| Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.4% | $2.1K | $828K | C | 0x1e7a7b…e2df | ||
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.3% | $109 | $576K | C | 0x73ea54…69f7 | ||
| Will Person A win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf43c1e…15c9 | ||
| Will Person C win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x813a4c…63ff | ||
| Will Person E win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xacdaff…4dd6 | ||
| Will Person G win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa8dc2a…eb0e | ||
| Will Person I win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5b6a87…6987 | ||
| Will Person K win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5ac101…7ba3 | ||
| Will Person M win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x440ec6…6baa | ||
| Will Person O win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x15a0ea…c560 | ||
| Will Person Q win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf77ee7…1204 | ||
| Will Person S win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xeb09f7…9702 | ||
| Will Person U win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0f6205…5831 | ||
| Will Person W win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5c514c…882f | ||
| Will Person Y win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5cb758…eae5 | ||
| Will Person AA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xff539b…6595 | ||
| Will Person AC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x87934f…4156 | ||
| Will Person AE win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2fb5c9…248c | ||
| Will Person AG win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5418d7…3007 | ||
| Will Person AI win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa7b8dc…f5d9 | ||
| Will Person AK win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf42438…3993 | ||
| Will Person AM win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7b81b7…2266 | ||
| Will Person AO win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x479165…f72a | ||
| Will Person AQ win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc7358f…df04 | ||
| Will Person AS win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd2d35e…97eb | ||
| Will Person AU win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xae854d…3f5f | ||
| Will Person AW win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x26cbe7…d417 | ||
| Will any other person or organization win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9d0104…9423 | ||
| Will Person B win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x72f08e…8f79 | ||
| Will Person D win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd2b5b5…e543 | ||
| Will Person F win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x09a534…24e1 | ||
| Will Person H win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x54abc8…4b99 | ||
| Will Person J win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x203d26…b325 | ||
| Will Person L win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa106db…b560 | ||
| Will Person N win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9a302a…d76f | ||
| Will Person P win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3d6175…4242 | ||
| Will Person R win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0a8de3…76d9 | ||
| Will Person T win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0061e3…896b | ||
| Will Person V win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x60826c…b726 | ||
| Will Person X win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x11fc8d…d85e | ||
| Will Person Z win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf8faf3…a99d | ||
| Will Person AB win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x35b794…4d24 | ||
| Will Person AD win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2f860b…42be | ||
| Will Person AF win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8e3631…7038 | ||
| Will Person AH win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc42ed1…0c35 | ||
| Will Person AJ win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe76ab6…609e | ||
| Will Person AL win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2919aa…31fe | ||
| Will Person AN win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa3ee1e…7819 | ||
| Will Person AP win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb6fb90…3d06 | ||
| Will Person AR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe8ef38…ab97 | ||
| Will Person AT win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x32cd65…9482 | ||
| Will Person AV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf91658…5656 | ||
| Will Person AX win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 | 2026-10-10 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0de8fd…4f29 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-32G70C4SZ5",
"slug": "nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139",
"question": "Will the Nobel Peace Prize be awarded in 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"nobel-peace-prize",
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"international-awards",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 71,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19339854,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"none"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}