Will nothing ever happen by 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 69.0% | $1.6K | $607K | C | 0xa090ae…931e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf sources (1)
- polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nothing-ever-happens-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nothing-ever-happens-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nothing-ever-happens-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SQSTL62BJ7",
"slug": "nothing-ever-happens-2026",
"question": "Will nothing ever happen by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"2026",
"status-quo",
"global-stability",
"annual-event"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 606576,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 44,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}