Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be publicly revealed by 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto | 2026-12-31 | 96.1% | — | $14K | C | 0xb00e79…58f7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Satoshi moves any Bitcoin
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin
This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame.
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
2. Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi
This market will resolve to "Something" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public during this market's above-specified time frame.
Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.
If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify.
Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto sources (2) · stated precedence rule
recent wire items
- Satoshi identity revealed by 2026 nears full pricing Polymarket 99%
- Polymarket prices a 99% chance Satoshi Nakamoto's identity will be publicly revealed by 2026, with trading volume up over 10,000% day-over-day, a 102.7x surge.
- The AI cryptographic security warning story appears to have catalyzed fresh attention on this contract, driving the extreme volume spike even as the price itself is already near ceiling.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-77NC57P468) prices only a 3% chance Satoshi moves any Bitcoin by 2027, suggesting the market separates identity revelation from on-chain action.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the contract likely requires a credible, broadly accepted public identification, not an unverified claim.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nothing-ever-happens-satoshi-nakamoto/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nothing-ever-happens-satoshi-nakamoto |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nothing-ever-happens-satoshi-nakamoto") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-24JSNTN2D5",
"slug": "nothing-ever-happens-satoshi-nakamoto",
"question": "Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be publicly revealed by 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"pop-culture",
"identity-mystery",
"bitcoin-founder",
"2026",
"never-happens"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13696,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "intel.arkm.com",
"url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}