Will North Korea conduct missile tests in July 2026, and if so, how many? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-07 ]
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in July 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 1 North Korea test | 2026-07-05 | 2.0% | — | $8.3K | C | 0x833480…9621 | ||
| Exactly 1 North Korea test | 2026-07-31 | 20.0% | $291 | $8.6K | C | 0xba3d93…78b5 | ||
| Exactly 2 North Korea tests | 2026-07-31 | 14.0% | $2 | $4.2K | C | 0xb0ca12…10e0 | ||
| 3 or more North Korea tests | 2026-07-31 | 5.1% | — | $124 | C | 0xd4ae25…91d7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-july-2026-20260626154530205/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-july-2026-20260626154530205 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-july-2026-20260626154530205") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9MZFYFG715",
"slug": "number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-july-2026-20260626154530205",
"question": "Will North Korea conduct missile tests in July 2026, and if so, how many?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"north-korea",
"military-activity",
"missile-tests",
"2026",
"asia-pacific"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21241,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 24,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}