NY-23 House Election Winner [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 95.3% | — | $8.2K | B | 0x8aceb4…3155 | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 2.3% | — | $9.1K | B | 0x6098d0…bb35 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdf2627…8431 | ||
| Will A win the NY-23 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x371b94…2e58 | ||
| Will B win the NY-23 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xedd0d6…755a | ||
| Will C win the NY-23 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2058fb…5a90 | ||
| Will D win the NY-23 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb1a80c…8186 | ||
| Will E win the NY-23 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x803da8…de4c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- NY-23 Republican hold attracts heavy odds near certainty 96% · $35K 24h
- Republicans priced at 96% in NY-23, the market treats this seat as effectively decided.
- $35K in 24h is 63% of all-time, a notable concentration for what appears a non-competitive race.
- Volume near certainty often reflects arbitrage flow or late hedgers covering opposite exposure in adjacent races.
- Resolves on 2026 NY-23 House election result.
- Traders pile into NY-23 Republican hold at near-certain odds 97% · $35K 24h
- At 97%, Polymarket has the Republican candidate as a virtual lock for the NY-23 House seat.
- $35K in 24h represents 63% of the contract's entire all-time volume, an unusually concentrated burst.
- Late-cycle volume at near-ceiling odds suggests a specific catalyst confirming Republican strength, or late arbitrage closing residual risk.
- Contract resolves on NY-23 House election result.
- NY-23 Democratic odds hold at 3% through a volume surge 3% · $17K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 3% in NY-23, a heavy Republican lean with marginal upset probability.
- $16.7K in 24h equals 52% of all-time contract volume, a sharp single-session concentration.
- NY-23 flipped Republican in recent cycles; any Democratic path requires significant candidate or environmental shift.
- Resolves on November 2026 House election.
- NY-23 Democratic odds stay near zero through a volume surge 3% · $17K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Democratic win in NY-23 at just 3%, treating the seat as a heavy Republican hold.
- 24h volume of $17K is 52% of all-time, majority of lifetime handle landed in a single session.
- Fresh activity at near-zero odds suggests traders are either topping off short-Democrat exposure or testing the floor.
- Resolves on the NY-23 general election result.
- Democrats priced out of NY-23 as odds stay at 2% 2% · $16K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democratic odds of winning NY-23 at 2%, near-total Republican lock.
- 24h volume of $15.7K is 50% of all-time, showing fresh attention on a heavily one-sided contract.
- NY-23 has lean-Republican fundamentals; volume surge likely reflects hedging or late confirmation trades.
- Resolves on certified House election result for NY-23.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ny-23-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ny-23-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ny-23-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K34TZHDVH7",
"slug": "ny-23-house-election-winner",
"question": "NY-23 House Election Winner",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"ny-23",
"2026",
"swing-district"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17289,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 65,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}