Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-07 (3D) ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-39 | 2026-08-07 | 63.0% | $202 | $3.9K | B | 0x0efc47…f966 | ||
| 0-19 | 2026-08-07 | 0.5% | $67 | $1.3K | B | 0xa7faa6…a25a | ||
| 40-59 | 2026-08-07 | 32.0% | $42 | $5.3K | B | 0x80c969…92b7 | ||
| 60-79 | 2026-08-07 | 2.1% | $78 | $3.2K | B | 0x485dff…b0fd | ||
| 80-99 | 2026-08-07 | 0.2% | $61 | $397 | B | 0xcf57fa…3e7b | ||
| 100-119 | 2026-08-07 | 0.2% | $100 | $610 | B | 0xc5b97d…3633 | ||
| 120-139 | 2026-08-07 | 0.2% | $61 | $354 | B | 0x8b077e…1ade | ||
| 140-159 | 2026-08-07 | 0.2% | $61 | $410 | B | 0x61582b…6aba | ||
| 160-179 | 2026-08-07 | 0.2% | $68 | $483 | B | 0xa84a92…9e03 | ||
| 180-199 | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | $10 | $537 | B | 0xa372d0…e92b | ||
| 200+ | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | $10 | $540 | B | 0x013b9c…2f6a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://x.com/NYCMayor | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between July 31, 12:00 PM ET and August 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://x.com/NYCMayor" sources (4) · stated precedence rule
- https://x.com/NYCMayor venue-listed
- xtracker.polymarket.com source of record venue-listed
- https://xtracker.polymarket.com from rules text · editorial
- X itself from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nyc-mayor-of-tweets-july-31-august-7-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nyc-mayor-of-tweets-july-31-august-7-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nyc-mayor-of-tweets-july-31-august-7-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P39SGJ96R5",
"slug": "nyc-mayor-of-tweets-july-31-august-7-2026",
"question": "Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"nyc-government",
"social-media-activity",
"2026",
"public-figure-behavior",
"weekly-metric"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17078,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://x.com/NYCMayor",
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://x.com/NYCMayor",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "X itself",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}