Will the winning party in the New Zealand election receive more than 5 percentage points margin of victory in the popular vote? [ resolves 2026-11-07 (95D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative… | 2026-11-07 | 32.0% | $12 | $1.3K | A | 0x3178e6…69d3 | ||
| Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative… | 2026-11-07 | 18.0% | $42 | $2.1K | A | 0x542f00…b36d | ||
| ≥ 10% | 2026-11-07 | 14.0% | $1.1K | $4.3K | A | 0x1217ae…9517 | ||
| Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative… | 2026-11-07 | 13.0% | $62 | $3.8K | A | 0x83822c…b3fc | ||
| Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative… | 2026-11-07 | 10.0% | $104 | $644 | A | 0x55ae05…6021 | ||
| Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative… | 2026-11-07 | 3.8% | — | $691 | A | 0x5ed3b8…3c1e | ||
| ≥ 15% | 2026-11-07 | 0.9% | — | $499 | A | 0xa63456…9de0 | ||
| Will another party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative… | 2026-11-07 | 0.2% | — | $358 | A | 0xe8f2b0…1c3a | ||
| Will any other result occur in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election | 2026-11-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x358d02…aec8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- elections.nz venue-listed
- New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y45BTB3VQ4",
"slug": "nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory",
"question": "Will the winning party in the New Zealand election receive more than 5 percentage points margin of victory in the popular vote?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"new-zealand",
"2026",
"popular-vote",
"margin-of-victory"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13643,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://elections.nz/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "elections.nz",
"url": "https://elections.nz/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}