CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will o1's FDV be above $1 trillion one day after launch? [ resolves 2028-01-01 (577D) ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 7 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ $100,000,000 2028-01-01 78.0%
$1.1K $87K
C 0xd638c6…c7e3
≥ $200,000,000 2028-01-01 42.0%
$128 $5.5K
C 0xf3400b…11e2
≥ $300,000,000 2028-01-01 23.0%
$801
C 0xf000e6…1de2
≥ $400,000,000 2028-01-01 63.0%
$153
C 0xfb9a43…d8aa
≥ $500,000,000 2028-01-01 $91
C 0x001684…1210
≥ $700,000,000 2028-01-01 $58
C 0x1d0f4f…be0f
≥ $1,000,000,000 2028-01-01 17.2%
$16 $1.0K
C 0xeeb63b…dfea
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers x.com link Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 7 markets · share this text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
platform source field polymarket.descriptionhttps://x.com/o1_exchange
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWZZ0YHSP8",
  "slug": "o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Will o1's FDV be above $1 trillion one day after launch?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "valuation-metrics",
    "o1-ai",
    "2028"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 7,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 94747,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 50,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "x.com",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →