Will a specific candidate win the Ohio gubernatorial election? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | — | 99.9% | — | $59K | A | 0x3babe9…2498 | ||
| The Republicans | — | 0.2% | — | $57K | A | 0x650e3e…07fb | ||
| Option A | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3e859e…7e04 | ||
| Option B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc4caeb…28e5 | ||
| Option C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9050b7…1e6a | ||
| Option D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd99dbe…04cf | ||
| Option E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbb22e2…307c | ||
| Option F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf9b01f…7485 | ||
| Option G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7e8c8a…db5a | ||
| Option H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x18d6ba…4dba | ||
| Option I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc3503b…f65a | ||
| Option J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3a3535…3314 | ||
| Other | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4f7ac8…0232 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
recent wire items
- Ohio governor odds stay well below 25% for Republicans 20% · $133K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republican win at 20%, implying Democrats are clear favorites in this open-seat race.
- $133K in 24h is 34% of all-time volume, a major one-day surge on a governor market.
- Fresh attention on Ohio suggests new polling, candidate developments, or realignment chatter driving reassessment.
- Resolves after November 2026 general election.
- Heavy trading tests Ohio GOP at long-shot 21% 21% · $139K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at just 21%, deep underdog territory in a state trending competitive.
- 24h volume hit $139K, equal to 36% of all-time handle, signaling a sharp spike in fresh attention.
- Ohio's 2026 governor race drawing capital as filing deadlines and candidate field clarify.
- Resolves on Ohio gubernatorial election night, November 2026.
- Democrats favored in Ohio governor race as buyers back 71% 71% · $64K 24h
- Polymarket prices 71%, odds favor Democrats but leave meaningful room for a Republican upset.
- $63K in 24h is 28% of all-time volume on a $225K contract, reflecting sustained ongoing interest.
- Ohio's competitive governor race is attracting fresh capital as the 2026 midterm cycle heats up.
- Resolves on 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election result.
- Ohio governor race tilts Democratic as odds hold near 75% 72% · $56K 24h
- 72% price puts Democrats as clear favorites in Ohio's 2026 gubernatorial race, a notable stance in a swing state.
- 24h volume of $55K is only 26% of all-time, meaning sustained prior interest exists and today adds a meaningful layer.
- Mid-October catalyst likely includes candidate debate performance, endorsements, or new polling crossing traders' desks.
- Resolves on November 2026 election night; Republican path to recovery would require a significant environment shift.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ohio-governor-winner-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ohio-governor-winner-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ohio-governor-winner-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KSRSHVHX02",
"slug": "ohio-governor-winner-2026",
"question": "Will a specific candidate win the Ohio gubernatorial election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"ohio",
"2026",
"gubernatorial",
"us-states"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 115818,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}