Will the winner of the Ohio Senate election be decided by DATE? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | — | 50.0% | $37 | $70K | C | 0x968a1a…5bfb | ||
| The Republicans | — | 38.0% | $15 | $57K | C | 0x771873…8669 | ||
| Person A | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4d689d…5e77 | ||
| Person B | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x13a579…0991 | ||
| Person C | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xff0256…4daf | ||
| Person D | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x03898b…14e0 | ||
| Person E | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x681e27…417b | ||
| Person F | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5050ac…1598 | ||
| Person G | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5f0acd…957f | ||
| Person H | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf66691…c430 | ||
| Person I | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc94274…d36d | ||
| Person J | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc61561…db27 | ||
| A candidate not listed above | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4ce1dc…8e4b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
recent wire items
- Ohio Senate odds stay under 50% through heavy trading 41% · $65K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans as underdogs at 41%, implying Democrats hold a meaningful edge in Ohio.
- 24h volume of $65K is 27% of all-time, making today one of the contract's most active sessions.
- Late-cycle Senate positioning likely driving fresh attention as 2026 midterm race sharpens.
- Resolves on the outcome of the Ohio 2026 U.S. Senate general election.
- Republicans slip below 50% in the Ohio Senate race 43% · $63K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 43% in Ohio, below 50%, making this a market-implied toss-up leaning Democratic.
- 26% of all-time volume traded in 24h, consistent with the broad Senate-cycle volume event today.
- Ohio at 43% Republican is a notable read given the state's recent rightward drift; fresh volume endorses the competitive framing.
- Resolves on 2026 Ohio Senate general election outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ohio-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ohio-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ohio-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-53NPW6YWF1",
"slug": "ohio-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Will the winner of the Ohio Senate election be decided by DATE?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"ohio",
"senate-2026",
"us-midterms",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 126973,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}