Will OpenAI file for an IPO by the end of 2025? [ resolves 2026-06-06 (3D) ]

Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?

polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

polymarket 4 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026	2026-06-06	4.0%	—	$5.7K	B	`0x82abe4…508b`
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026	2026-06-06	3.0%	$1.6K	$11K	B	`0x32a921…545f`
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 26, 2026	2026-06-06	0.2%	—	$2.7K	B	`0x5fb8d6…a757`
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026	2026-06-06	0.1%	—	$51K	B	`0x3d55e0…e307`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	Securities And Exchange Commission (consensus fallback)	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 4 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI files a Form S-1 or F-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying filing includes either (a) a publicly available filing on the SEC's EDGAR database, or (b) a confidential submission that is explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or reported as completed by a consensus of credible reporting. A filing must be confirmed or announced as having been completed within the market's timeframe to qualify. Confirmations, announcements, or reporting that occur after the end date will not be considered, even if the filing itself occurred within the timeframe. The primary resolution source will be official filings from the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolution_source → "Securities And Exchange Commission (consensus fallback)"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/openai-files-ipo-by/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/openai-files-ipo-by.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("openai-files-ipo-by")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FY6JKVXJR4",
  "slug": "openai-files-ipo-by",
  "question": "Will OpenAI file for an IPO by the end of 2025?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "openai",
    "ipo",
    "tech-finance",
    "corporate-milestone",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 69588,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 72,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Securities And Exchange Commission (consensus fallback)",
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →