Will OpenAI file for an IPO by the end of 2025? [ resolved 2026-06-06 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Securities And Exchange Commission (consensus fallback) | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI files a Form S-1 or F-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying filing includes either (a) a publicly available filing on the SEC's EDGAR database, or (b) a confidential submission that is explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or reported as completed by a consensus of credible reporting.
A filing must be confirmed or announced as having been completed within the market's timeframe to qualify. Confirmations, announcements, or reporting that occur after the end date will not be considered, even if the filing itself occurred within the timeframe.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolution_source → "Securities And Exchange Commission (consensus fallback)" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 26, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-06 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (4 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/openai-files-ipo-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/openai-files-ipo-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("openai-files-ipo-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FY6JKVXJR4",
"slug": "openai-files-ipo-by",
"question": "Will OpenAI file for an IPO by the end of 2025?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"openai",
"ipo",
"tech-finance",
"corporate-milestone",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 69588,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Securities And Exchange Commission (consensus fallback)",
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}