Will OpenAI's market capitalization on its IPO closing day exceed $100 billion? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2027-01 ]
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day | 2026-06-30 | 5.2% | $153 | $203K | A | 0x602a7a…de13 | ||
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day | 2026-06-30 | 3.5% | $78 | $163K | A | 0xb77424…0cf4 | ||
| ≥ $1,500,000,000,000 | 2026-06-30 | 2.1% | $2.2K | $135K | A | 0x4a8005…805b | ||
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day | 2026-06-30 | 1.2% | $300 | $513K | A | 0xa28178…7c09 | ||
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day | 2026-06-30 | 0.3% | $108 | $159K | A | 0x3f9f68…1ed3 | ||
| ≤ $500,000,000,000 | 2026-06-30 | 0.2% | $109 | $287K | A | 0x08b391…ca04 | ||
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 53.0% | $2.9K | $359K | A | 0x3849e1…dc5e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- another reliable source from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("openai-ipo-closing-market-cap") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0D7TB449G5",
"slug": "openai-ipo-closing-market-cap",
"question": "Will OpenAI's market capitalization on its IPO closing day exceed $100 billion?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"openai",
"ipo",
"market-cap",
"tech-valuation",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1817705,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "another reliable source",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}