CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will OpenSea's fully diluted valuation exceed $100M–$5B one day after launch? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 8 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ $100,000,000 2027-01-01 57.5%
$233 $79K
C 0x77a401…97d1
≥ $100,000,000 2027-01-01 51.0%
$62 $221K
C 0x9027a1…7800
≥ $300,000,000 2027-01-01 51.0%
$20 $60K
C 0xe98dce…c953
≥ $500,000,000 2027-01-01 45.0%
$10K $2.11M
C 0xa0192d…8989
≥ $1,000,000,000 2027-01-01 22.0%
$624 $1.98M
C 0xe67c94…9b7f
≥ $2,000,000,000 2027-01-01 7.0%
$170 $494K
C 0xb8a883…b2a3
≥ $3,000,000,000 2027-01-01 6.0%
$26 $731K
C 0xa75027…ca25
≥ $5,000,000,000 2027-01-01 4.6%
$1.8K $442K
C 0xc20be6…06a8
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers not provided not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 8 markets · share this text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4XQTFZWVD7",
  "slug": "opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Will OpenSea's fully diluted valuation exceed ___ one day after launch?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "opensea",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "token-launch",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 8,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 6122591,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 52,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →