Will the Osun State Gubernatorial Election winner be determined by August 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-15 (11D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 38 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ademola Adeleke | 2026-08-15 | 52.0% | $2.1K | $7.1K | C | 0x5fa907…483b | ||
| Bola Oyebamiji | 2026-08-15 | 34.0% | $7.0K | $10K | C | 0x5d2a3c…a7a0 | ||
| Adesina Adeyemi-Doro | 2026-08-15 | 0.3% | $85 | $1.1K | C | 0xe2a368…e998 | ||
| Adewale Adebayo | 2026-08-15 | 0.3% | $81 | $1.1K | C | 0xeb9930…200e | ||
| Esan Olajide | 2026-08-15 | 0.2% | $156 | $1.5K | C | 0x61af8e…5ef5 | ||
| Adeagbo Opawoye | 2026-08-15 | 0.2% | $45 | $1.3K | C | 0x6d4f73…d2c9 | ||
| Taofeek Adeleke | 2026-08-15 | 0.2% | $1.2K | $2.9K | C | 0xd7858a…7ce4 | ||
| Saliu Oyelami | 2026-08-15 | 0.2% | $93 | $1.5K | C | 0x06cada…b2d5 | ||
| Adefemi Adesuyi | 2026-08-15 | 0.2% | $67 | $1.4K | C | 0x49ec74…2312 | ||
| Farinloye Olarenwaju | 2026-08-15 | 0.1% | $188 | $1.4K | C | 0x7eec06…4be6 | ||
| Najeem Salam | 2026-08-15 | 0.1% | $57 | $1.5K | C | 0x0541a9…f8de | ||
| Person A | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xef4af1…bb27 | ||
| Person B | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb985aa…3ae8 | ||
| Person C | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x61849e…a1cd | ||
| Person D | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5acab8…6cc1 | ||
| Person E | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7f1977…d22a | ||
| Person F | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x13918f…e7af | ||
| Person G | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd0bdb1…a239 | ||
| Person H | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf44ad3…4f04 | ||
| Person I | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd69eff…b3b8 | ||
| Person J | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x72d2d1…2b1f | ||
| Person K | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x253480…aaa8 | ||
| Person L | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x327b11…89c1 | ||
| Person M | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x181eb1…1a4a | ||
| Person N | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9b932c…ad56 | ||
| Person O | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x316961…ab44 | ||
| Person P | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf775c8…a4e1 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9b7590…9dd5 | ||
| Person R | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3b6429…b77e | ||
| Person S | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe87156…64e8 | ||
| Person T | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5c0437…8b76 | ||
| Person U | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc6641c…86c7 | ||
| Person V | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9b74a0…23a9 | ||
| Person W | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9492be…2391 | ||
| Person X | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb86423…d704 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcf95b7…efcd | ||
| Person Z | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdc867e…db9a | ||
| Someone else | 2026-08-15 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1567f4…7ebd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Osun State, Nigeria on August 15, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Osun State and Nigeria, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://inecnigeria.org).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- inecnigeria.org venue-listed
- Independent National Electoral Commission source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/osun-state-gubernatorial-election-winner-20260722191218748/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/osun-state-gubernatorial-election-winner-20260722191218748 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("osun-state-gubernatorial-election-winner-20260722191218748") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8NM5Q3MQR1",
"slug": "osun-state-gubernatorial-election-winner-20260722191218748",
"question": "Will the Osun State Gubernatorial Election winner be determined by August 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"nigeria",
"gubernatorial-race",
"osun-state",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 38,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31134,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 53,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://inecnigeria.org",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "inecnigeria.org",
"url": "https://inecnigeria.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}