Will Oura's IPO closing market cap exceed $5 billion? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oura not IPO before January 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 98.0% | $32 | $564 | A | 0xbfc580…c219 | ||
| ≥ $20 | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | $166 | $5.3K | A | 0xe44161…1b2a | ||
| Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $88 | $3.5K | A | 0x9956b8…99e3 | ||
| Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | $4.9K | $19K | A | 0x704e4e…7fd2 | ||
| ≤ $7.5 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $184 | $9.5K | A | 0xc12192…3647 | ||
| Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $221 | $7.3K | A | 0xc80aca…e42b | ||
| Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $657 | $5.1K | A | 0x470cb4…da30 | ||
| Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $300 | $6.1K | A | 0x791fdf…87a4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
another reliable source from rules text
recent wire items
- Oura IPO before January 2027 stays a long shot at 12% 88% · $22K 24h
- Polymarket implies only a 12% chance Oura completes an IPO before January 2027, the 'no IPO' side prices at 88%.
- $22K in 24h represents 66% of all-time contract volume, the overwhelming majority of lifetime liquidity in one day.
- Surge likely triggered by an Oura funding announcement, filing rumor, or broader wearables-sector IPO news.
- Contract resolves if Oura lists publicly before January 1, 2027; the window is now roughly 90 days.
- Heavy trading holds Oura IPO off the table before January 2027 85% · $16K 24h
- Polymarket prices 85% odds that Oura does not IPO before January 2027, signaling broad market skepticism of a near-term listing.
- 24h volume of $15K is 57% of all-time contract volume, more than half the market's lifetime activity in a single day.
- Spike in attention may precede a news catalyst: renewed IPO chatter, a funding round, or an insider disclosure.
- Contract resolves on whether Oura completes a public market debut before January 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/oura-ipo-closing-market-cap/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/oura-ipo-closing-market-cap |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("oura-ipo-closing-market-cap") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TV6FPVN7B4",
"slug": "oura-ipo-closing-market-cap",
"question": "Will Oura's IPO closing market cap exceed $5 billion?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"finance",
"ipo",
"market-cap",
"oura",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 56667,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "another reliable source",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}