Will the 2026 Paraná Governor Election be won by the incumbent or a challenger? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Moro | 2026-10-05 | 100.0% | $485 | $30K | A | 0x67a28c…ce55 | ||
| Requião Filho | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $56 | $5.4K | A | 0xaed540…f8a9 | ||
| Rafael Greca | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $352 | A | 0xe7675a…9411 | ||
| Guto Silva | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $647 | A | 0x380c9a…3589 | ||
| Alexandre Curi | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $452 | A | 0x312829…3c25 | ||
| Beto Richa | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $371 | A | 0x7daef0…ff00 | ||
| Enio Verri | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $309 | A | 0x5be26b…6e40 | ||
| Luiz França | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $172 | A | 0x7d9970…1aa5 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1a2812…642b | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdf6d45…abd5 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc74197…dfe7 | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdcaf58…9ebb | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb486eb…2c03 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x53be47…cf63 | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xacade3…7e0b | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf08d88…7082 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x108d48…a492 | ||
| Other | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x948bec…19ef |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
platform source field
polymarket.description → www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes sources (3) · stated precedence rule
tse.jus.br venue-listed Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 100% |
| NO | Will Requião Filho win the Governor of Paraná election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Rafael Greca win the Governor of Paraná election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Guto Silva win the Governor of Paraná election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Alexandre Curi win the Governor of Paraná election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Beto Richa win the Governor of Paraná election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Enio Verri win the Governor of Paraná election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Luiz França win the Governor of Paraná election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-30MTDWQ1F2",
"slug": "parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343",
"question": "Will the 2026 Paraná Governor Election be won by the incumbent or a challenger?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"brazil",
"paraná",
"2026",
"gubernatorial"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 37259,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tse.jus.br",
"url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}