Will the 2026 Paraná Governor Election be won by the incumbent or a challenger? [ resolves 2026-10-05 (74D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Moro | 2026-10-05 | 81.0% | — | $17K | A | 0x67a28c…ce55 | ||
| Requião Filho | 2026-10-05 | 11.0% | — | $638 | A | 0xaed540…f8a9 | ||
| Guto Silva | 2026-10-05 | 7.1% | — | $472 | A | 0x380c9a…3589 | ||
| Rafael Greca | 2026-10-05 | 4.7% | — | $352 | A | 0xe7675a…9411 | ||
| Beto Richa | 2026-10-05 | 3.5% | — | $371 | A | 0x7daef0…ff00 | ||
| Enio Verri | 2026-10-05 | 2.4% | — | $309 | A | 0x5be26b…6e40 | ||
| Luiz França | 2026-10-05 | 1.1% | — | $49 | A | 0x7d9970…1aa5 | ||
| Alexandre Curi | 2026-10-05 | 0.8% | — | $452 | A | 0x312829…3c25 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1a2812…642b | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdf6d45…abd5 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc74197…dfe7 | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdcaf58…9ebb | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb486eb…2c03 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x53be47…cf63 | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xacade3…7e0b | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf08d88…7082 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x108d48…a492 | ||
| Other | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x948bec…19ef |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
platform source field
polymarket.description → www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- tse.jus.br venue-listed
- Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text · editorial
- www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-30MTDWQ1F2",
"slug": "parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343",
"question": "Will the 2026 Paraná Governor Election be won by the incumbent or a challenger?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"brazil",
"paraná",
"2026",
"gubernatorial"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19802,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tse.jus.br",
"url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}