Will the US National Debt peak before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $39,000,000,000,000 | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | — | A | 0xc5d901…12cb | ||
| ≥ $40,000,000,000,000 | 2026-12-31 | 98.0% | — | $5.5K | A | 0x83c948…05ad | ||
| ≥ $41,000,000,000,000 | 2026-12-31 | 26.0% | — | $637 | A | 0xc552c2…c20b | ||
| ≥ $42,000,000,000,000 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $5.3K | A | 0x1f9a27…63b5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current sources (3) · stated precedence rule
treasurydirect.gov venue-listed U.S. Treasury Department committed source treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the U.S. national debt hit $39 trillion before 2027? | polymarket | 2026-03-20 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/peak-us-national-debt-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/peak-us-national-debt-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("peak-us-national-debt-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KP8NCHXC90",
"slug": "peak-us-national-debt-before-2027",
"question": "Will the US National Debt peak before 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"us-national-debt",
"fiscal-policy",
"economics",
"2026",
"milestone-tracking",
"macroeconomic-indicators"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11389,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Treasury Department",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "treasurydirect.gov",
"url": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "U.S. Treasury Department",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}