Will Pedro Sánchez be out as Prime Minister of Spain by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-12 ]
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Traders back Sánchez surviving as Spain's PM through year-end 28% · $101K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Sánchez exit at 28%, the market leans toward him remaining PM through year-end.
- $101K in 24h volume equals 27% of all-time, pointing to a discrete political catalyst driving renewed interest.
- A 28% exit probability reflects live coalition fragility in Spain without the market calling an imminent collapse.
- Resolves if Sánchez leaves the PM role by December 31, 2026.
- Traders back Sánchez exit odds at 27% by year-end 27% · $94K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Sánchez departure by December 31, 2026 at 27%, meaningful but not the base case.
- $94K in 24h represents 28% of all-time volume, pointing to a discrete catalyst driving attention.
- Spanish coalition fragility and budget deadlines in Q4 are the nearest pressure points.
- Contract resolves December 31, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/pedro-snchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/pedro-snchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("pedro-snchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1HSNRBYJ42",
"slug": "pedro-snchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by",
"question": "Will Pedro Sánchez be out as Prime Minister of Spain by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"geopolitics",
"spanish-politics",
"executive-transition",
"2026",
"eu-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 555558,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}