Will the People's Bank of China change its rate by September 30? [ resolves 2026-09-30 (69D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html sources (2) · single authority
- pbc.gov.cn source of record venue-listed
- PBoC Open Market Operations announcements from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5B2XRCRCJ9",
"slug": "peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021",
"question": "Will the People's Bank of China change its rate by September 30?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"central-banking",
"china-monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"pboc"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19680,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "pbc.gov.cn",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "pbc.gov.cn",
"url": "https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "PBoC Open Market Operations announcements",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}