Will the margin of victory in Peru's election second round be greater than 5 percentage points? [ resolves 2026-06-07 (4D) ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 2026-06-07 | 42.0% | $11K | $30K | B | 0x2fd42d…c123 | ||
| 0% | 2026-06-07 | 24.0% | $2.5K | $25K | B | 0x010310…4b43 | ||
| 4% | 2026-06-07 | 23.0% | $1.1K | $14K | B | 0xf079d7…8cf7 | ||
| 4% | 2026-06-07 | 3.8% | $1.2K | $10K | B | 0x34c68f…c85f | ||
| 8% | 2026-06-07 | 7.4% | $1.9K | $12K | B | 0x913d2a…af63 | ||
| 8% | 2026-06-07 | 1.1% | $3.0K | $12K | B | 0x4f7a95…b5c4 | ||
| ≥ 12% | 2026-06-07 | 3.0% | $1.5K | $13K | B | 0xa1b02c…805a | ||
| ≥ 12% | 2026-06-07 | 0.4% | $1.1K | $8.0K | B | 0xbf5cf2…b231 | ||
| Will any other outcome occur | 2026-06-07 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9a561f…332c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | onpe.gob.pe | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/peru-election-2nd-round-margin-of-victory/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/peru-election-2nd-round-margin-of-victory.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("peru-election-2nd-round-margin-of-victory") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2M15C54TX0",
"slug": "peru-election-2nd-round-margin-of-victory",
"question": "Will the margin of victory in Peru's election second round be greater than 5 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"peru",
"2026",
"presidential-runoff",
"margin-of-victory"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 125460,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "onpe.gob.pe",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}