Will Pierre Poilievre be out as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026	2026-12-31	13.0%		—	$150K		C	`0x189fc3…4e72`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 1 market · share this text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/poilievre-out-as-leader-of-conservatives-before-2027/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/poilievre-out-as-leader-of-conservatives-before-2027.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("poilievre-out-as-leader-of-conservatives-before-2027")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQ2Q1Z3T59",
  "slug": "poilievre-out-as-leader-of-conservatives-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Pierre Poilievre be out as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by December 31, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "canadian-politics",
    "conservative-party-leadership",
    "political-leadership",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 149849,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 55,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →