Will Republicans win more than 218 House seats in the 2026 midterm elections? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 190 | 2026-11-03 | 99.0% | $6 | $30K | A | 0xa2e435…f68f | ||
| Between 190 and 194 | 2026-11-03 | 0.3% | $10 | $13K | A | 0x18cc1d…cc94 | ||
| Between 195 and 199 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $267 | $32K | A | 0xa6af31…925d | ||
| Between 200 and 204 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $65 | $24K | A | 0x7ff4e4…f3d4 | ||
| Between 205 and 209 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $75 | $38K | A | 0x55f833…5faf | ||
| Between 210 and 214 | 2026-11-03 | 0.4% | — | $14K | A | 0xf301c0…f6cb | ||
| Between 215 and 219 | 2026-11-03 | 0.5% | — | $11K | A | 0x0d8711…62a3 | ||
| Between 220 and 224 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $135 | $59K | A | 0xba093f…a8f4 | ||
| Between 225 and 229 | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $25K | A | 0x2a576f…f3f1 | ||
| 230 or more | 2026-11-03 | 0.3% | $61 | $31K | A | 0x217a8a…8111 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
recent wire items
- Republican 190, 194 seat band stays a long shot despite fresh volume 17% · $10K 24h
- At 17% on Polymarket, a Republican final count landing in the narrow 190, 194 band is an unlikely but priced outcome.
- $10K in 24h is 30% of all-time volume, moderate Election Day interest in fine-grained House seat-count positioning.
- This contract pairs with the sub-190 spike (Spike 3), together mapping the full distribution of a wave scenario.
- Resolves on the final certified 2026 Republican House seat total.
- Odds stay near 50% on Republicans falling below 190 seats 43% · $65K 24h
- At 43% on Polymarket, the market sees a Republican sub-190 House outcome as slightly less likely than not.
- $65K in 24h is 40% of all-time volume, reflecting Election Day demand for macro House-composition exposure.
- The 190-seat threshold is a marker of a historic Democratic wave; 43% prices that scenario as live but not favored.
- Resolves on the final certified 2026 House seat count for Republicans.
- Betting picks up on Republicans staying under 190 House seats 36% · $49K 24h
- At 36%, Polymarket says there is a meaningful but minority chance Republicans fall under 190 seats after 2026.
- $49K in 24h, 34% of all-time, signals renewed interest in downside Republican House scenarios.
- Sub-190 pricing is a direct proxy for the probability of a Democratic House takeover of substantial size.
- Resolves after all 2026 midterm House seats are called.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HZZP4JMQ30",
"slug": "republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections",
"question": "Will Republicans win more than 218 House seats in the 2026 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"house-seats",
"2026-midterms",
"us-congress",
"republican-performance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 276252,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}