Will Ron DeSantis win the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary? [ resolved 2026-08-18 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 23 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds | 2026-08-18 | 100.0% | $4.9K | $193K | C | 0xd4a3de…04f9 | ||
| James Fishback | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $20K | $1.07M | C | 0xd8b94a…3466 | ||
| Wilton Simpson | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $63K | C | 0x641558…44c8 | ||
| Jay Collins | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $7.5K | $800K | C | 0x568ef5…cc40 | ||
| Casey DeSantis | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $210K | C | 0x21cadb…a50e | ||
| Jimmy Patronis | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $52K | C | 0x5393c4…20c6 | ||
| Matt Gaetz | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $41K | C | 0xe35b9f…46c8 | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x67ed65…3607 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xba60bf…0e0f | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3a594f…bae4 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe425cf…d07f | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbe2343…d570 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x713215…67ce | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x49f569…2bfa | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x978030…be67 | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf079c0…1747 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbc1e0a…98b2 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbcd89e…f151 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc85b13…8b05 | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa1af58…737d | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x75ea3c…ea1b | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4406f1…a2aa | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c227f…b5e7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
Florida Republican Party from rules text credible reporting from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Jimmy Patronis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Matt Gaetz be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Casey DeSantis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Wilton Simpson be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| YES | Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 100% |
| NO | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | polymarket | 2026-08-19 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (7 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Buyers back Donalds FL nomination as odds touch 99% 99% · $281K 24h
- Polymarket prices Donalds at 99%, cross-venue alignment with Kalshi confirms consensus.
- 32% of all-time volume in 24h ($281K), the largest single-day share this contract has seen.
- Cross-venue convergence at 99% removes arb opportunity and signals information has settled.
- Resolves on Florida Republican Party's official nominee declaration.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/republican-nominee-for-florida-governor/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/republican-nominee-for-florida-governor |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("republican-nominee-for-florida-governor") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PFTTW468Y8",
"slug": "republican-nominee-for-florida-governor",
"question": "Will Ron DeSantis win the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"florida",
"republican-primary",
"2026",
"gubernatorial"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 23,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2427348,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Florida Republican Party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}