Will Republicans hold more than 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47 or fewer | — | 24.0% | $1.1K | $163K | A | 0x46c862…27a8 | ||
| Exactly 48 | — | 11.0% | $6 | $40K | A | 0xb2ce24…1253 | ||
| Exactly 49 | — | 15.0% | $6 | $50K | A | 0x2fb2b4…ed56 | ||
| Exactly 50 | — | 15.0% | $32 | $114K | A | 0xa81e63…88fb | ||
| Exactly 51 | — | 14.0% | $50 | $220K | A | 0xf9b68b…456c | ||
| Exactly 52 | — | 13.2% | $121 | $585K | A | 0x4b6d35…0486 | ||
| Exactly 53 | — | 3.6% | — | $68K | A | 0x812d9e…c1c2 | ||
| Exactly 54 | — | 1.6% | — | $758K | A | 0x38fa30…0480 | ||
| Exactly 55 | — | 1.4% | — | $429K | A | 0x77051d…fb0c | ||
| Exactly 56 | — | 1.2% | — | $182K | A | 0xe831d8…63ad | ||
| 57 or more | — | 1.6% | — | $112K | A | 0x5d7634…79fc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
- Associated Press from rules text · editorial
- Fox News from rules text · editorial
- NBC from rules text · editorial
- official certification from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-93ZW3RYZF7",
"slug": "republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927",
"question": "Will Republicans hold more than 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"congress",
"senate-control",
"2026-midterms",
"gop-seats"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2720296,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}