CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Who will be the richest person on December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]

polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 37 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Elon Musk 2026-12-31 95.0%
$2.8K $146K
A 0x01529e…608f
Jensen Huang 2026-12-31 1.6%
$176K
A 0xeba714…479b
Warren Buffett 2026-12-31 1.2%
$1 $88K
A 0xca5e73…caae
Larry Page 2026-12-31 0.9%
$142K
A 0x184e4a…fd7c
Bernard Arnault 2026-12-31 0.7%
$365K
A 0x461058…3e37
Sergey Brin 2026-12-31 0.7%
$80K
A 0xb6a7fc…41ef
Larry Ellison 2026-12-31 0.4%
$56K
A 0xe9eb11…98db
Steve Ballmer 2026-12-31 0.4%
$12 $308K
A 0x440978…0791
Mark Zuckerberg 2026-12-31 0.4%
$128K
A 0x83f44c…7b99
Jeff Bezos 2026-12-31 0.4%
$336K
A 0x350f0b…12df
Person A 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x3cc2eb…766e
Person C 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xd1b108…1903
Person E 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xcfec07…bb9e
Person G 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x0697fc…4402
Person I 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x1bbcd5…a3df
Person K 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x77fa32…7a95
Person M 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xefa758…9f50
Person O 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xa649b8…21a7
Person Q 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xaf54db…7394
Person S 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x88c4ad…9832
Person U 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x5eda71…5ff1
Person W 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x8f191e…377a
Person Y 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xb651e6…dd9a
Person J 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xf34d4d…60b8
Another individual 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xb13f0c…59e6
Person B 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xbbe399…8a2f
Person F 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x9e1d0c…e9f8
Person D 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x85a964…808d
Person H 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xf5c16f…291c
Person L 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x8e9f9c…2224
Person N 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x667f6c…4a82
Person P 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xef8347…8e7f
Person R 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x836140…9484
Person T 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xbac3ca…a420
Person V 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0x14f114…200c
Person X 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xe77b24…0445
Person Z 2026-12-31 0.0%
A 0xba0e21…3279
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers not provided link Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 37 markets · share this text
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
platform source field polymarket.descriptionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/
sources (4) · stated precedence rule
  • bloomberg.com venue-listed
  • forbes.com venue-listed
  • Bloomberg Billionaires Index source of record from rules text · editorial
  • Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List from rules text · editorial
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
closed Will Person A be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person C be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person E be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person G be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person I be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person K be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person M be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person O be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person Q be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person S be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person U be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person W be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person Y be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person J be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will another individual be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person B be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person F be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person D be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person H be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person L be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person N be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person P be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person R be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person T be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person V be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person X be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
closed Will Person Z be richest person on December 31? polymarket 2026-12-31
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (27 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/richest-person-on-december-31-2026/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/richest-person-on-december-31-2026
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("richest-person-on-december-31-2026")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8H09Q4GC25",
  "slug": "richest-person-on-december-31-2026",
  "question": "Who will be the richest person on December 31, 2026?",
  "category": "companies",
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "business",
    "wealth-ranking",
    "net-worth",
    "billionaires",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 37,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 1824373,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 86,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Bloomberg Billionaires Index",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "bloomberg.com",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "forbes.com",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg Billionaires Index",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →