Will a new governor be elected in Rio de Janeiro? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 23 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Ruas | 2026-10-05 | 100.0% | $85 | $11K | B | 0x4ba913…fe67 | ||
| Dr. Luizinho | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $8.3K | B | 0x3f8adc…afd7 | ||
| Eduardo Pazuello | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.7K | B | 0x7f4900…e71a | ||
| Tarcísio Motta | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $8.8K | B | 0x2050c0…3ea7 | ||
| Anthony Garotinho | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $8.0K | B | 0x8736a6…8922 | ||
| Wilson Witzel | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $10K | B | 0xdc5818…560a | ||
| André Português | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $3.7K | B | 0x0bbebe…24e9 | ||
| Lindbergh Farias | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $6.0K | B | 0x9d8f8b…9567 | ||
| Felipe Curi | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $18K | B | 0x0233e5…dbe9 | ||
| Nicola Miccione | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $5.4K | B | 0x1e005b…ed77 | ||
| André Ceciliano | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $11K | B | 0xfbe484…ca5f | ||
| Chico Machado | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $7.4K | B | 0xf88f1f…4d4c | ||
| Fred Pacheco | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $133K | B | 0x706017…7bfd | ||
| Eduardo Paes | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $80 | $38K | B | 0x826627…240f | ||
| Rafa Luz | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $5.1K | B | 0x186601…2561 | ||
| Colonel Busnello | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $4.7K | B | 0xe0a662…6a99 | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xcb2d2f…4dd9 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2e3db4…4c1d | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xcf8842…752c | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x032425…bb5e | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdd8c7b…801c | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3f8e4b…4191 | ||
| Other | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd2abbc…ce0e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
platform source field
polymarket.description → www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes sources (2) · stated precedence rule
tse.jus.br committed source Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Rafa Luz win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Colonel Busnello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Eduardo Pazuello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tarcísio Motta win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will André Português win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Lindbergh Farias win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 0% |
| YES | Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | polymarket | 2026-10-16 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (16 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LG3W4M0CN6",
"slug": "rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176",
"question": "Will a new governor be elected in Rio de Janeiro?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"brazil",
"rio-de-janeiro",
"2026",
"gubernatorial"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 23,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 280556,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 78,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tse.jus.br",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tse.jus.br",
"url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}