How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the midterms? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (181D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 45 | 2027-02-01 | 3.0% | — | $423 | A | RSENATESEATS…E45 | ||
| Fewer than 45 | 2027-02-01 | 2.0% | — | $775 | A | RSENATESEATS…B45 | ||
| Exactly 46 | 2027-02-01 | 5.0% | — | $791 | A | RSENATESEATS…E46 | ||
| Exactly 47 | 2027-02-01 | 10.0% | — | $1.9K | A | RSENATESEATS…E47 | ||
| Exactly 48 | 2027-02-01 | 12.0% | — | $1.7K | A | RSENATESEATS…E48 | ||
| Exactly 49 | 2027-02-01 | 13.0% | $19 | $929 | A | RSENATESEATS…E49 | ||
| Exactly 50 | 2027-02-01 | 16.0% | — | $2.1K | A | RSENATESEATS…E50 | ||
| Exactly 51 | 2027-02-01 | 13.0% | $2 | $2.7K | A | RSENATESEATS…E51 | ||
| Exactly 52 | 2027-02-01 | 10.0% | — | $2.5K | A | RSENATESEATS…E52 | ||
| Exactly 53 | 2027-02-01 | 6.0% | — | $702 | A | RSENATESEATS…E53 | ||
| Exactly 54 | 2027-02-01 | 3.0% | — | $609 | A | RSENATESEATS…E54 | ||
| Exactly 55 | 2027-02-01 | 3.0% | — | $800 | A | RSENATESEATS…E55 | ||
| Exactly 56 | 2027-02-01 | 3.0% | — | $552 | A | RSENATESEATS…E56 | ||
| > 57 | 2027-02-01 | 8.0% | $188 | $4.0K | A | RSENATESEATS…A57 | ||
| Exactly 57 | 2027-02-01 | 3.0% | — | $600 | A | RSENATESEATS…E57 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Republican party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Odds hold that Republicans fall below 45 Senate seats 89% · $1.3M 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans holding fewer than 45 Senate seats at 89%, a heavy lean.
- $1.3M is 67% of all-time volume on this contract, surging as seat counts clarify.
- With Mississippi and Alaska both pricing Democratic wins above 90%, this macro seat-count contract is repricing accordingly.
- Resolves on final certified composition of the 120th Senate.
- Betting picks up on Republicans holding exactly 46 Senate seats 21% · $50K 24h
- Kalshi prices the exact 46-seat GOP outcome at 21%, a specific structural bet on a narrow seat-count scenario within a wide distribution.
- 24h volume of $50K is 42% of all-time flow, the single largest daily share in this contract's history.
- An exact-seat-count contract is sensitive to individual race outcomes; the surge implies traders are stress-testing specific map configurations.
- Resolves when the 120th Congress seat composition is confirmed.
- Republicans holding exactly 47 Senate seats stays unlikely 15% · $11K 24h
- Kalshi prices the Republican party finishing the 120th Congress with exactly 47 Senate seats at 15%, a specific count seen as a clear minority outcome.
- 24h volume of $11.28K is 27% of all-time, a notable single-day share for a precise seat-count contract.
- Fresh volume into an exact-number contract one week from Election Day suggests traders are refining seat-by-seat scenario models.
- Resolves on certified 120th Congress Senate composition.
- Traders back 47-seat Republican Senate scenario at 15% 15% · $11K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans finishing the 120th Congress at exactly 47 Senate seats at 15%, a live but minority scenario.
- $11.3K in 24h volume is 27% of all-time handle, a meaningful liquidity uptick for a precise seat-count contract.
- Exact seat-count markets attract sharp late money as state-level races clarify; attention here implies Georgia and other toss-ups are in focus.
- Resolves on certified 120th Congress Senate composition.
- Odds stay low on Republicans landing at exactly 48 Senate seats 18% · $14K 24h
- Kalshi prices the exact-48-seat outcome at 18%, the market judges this precise count more likely than a coin flip but well short of probable.
- 53% of all-time volume transacted in one day, making this the contract's defining session.
- Exact-seat contracts are highly sensitive to late-race swings in two or three toss-up states simultaneously.
- Resolves after the 120th Congress is certified; precision of the target makes this inherently low-probability.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/rsenateseats-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/rsenateseats-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("rsenateseats-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-93ZNVQ37R3",
"slug": "rsenateseats-27",
"question": "How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the midterms?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"republican-party",
"midterm-elections",
"seat-count",
"2026-midterms"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 20957,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}