Will a party other than United Russia or the Communist Party of the Russian Federation finish in third place in the next Russian parliamentary election? [ resolved 2026-09-20 ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 34 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 2026-09-20 | 100.0% | $534 | $14K | C | 0x57f80a…344c | ||
| United Russia (ER) | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $541 | $2.1K | C | 0x5b1458…643a | ||
| The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $147 | $4.2K | C | 0xd8dcf4…fef0 | ||
| A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $124 | $1.4K | C | 0x5242ae…da0e | ||
| New People (NL) | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $216 | $5.2K | C | 0x9c5117…876e | ||
| Rodina | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $194 | $2.1K | C | 0xe76b78…4787 | ||
| Civic Platform (GP) | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $113 | $1.7K | C | 0xfbbad1…4916 | ||
| Other | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcab468…4042 | ||
| Party A | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3dacdf…140f | ||
| Party B | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb2ec92…7ec4 | ||
| Party C | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9203d2…fb94 | ||
| Party D | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x77877b…f3eb | ||
| Party E | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1116dd…21a3 | ||
| Party F | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfad75e…e149 | ||
| Party G | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x577fbe…1730 | ||
| Party H | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc46d78…73a6 | ||
| Party I | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf16f1c…08a6 | ||
| Party J | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbb4701…5b15 | ||
| Party K | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb1edcc…b73d | ||
| Party L | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x307397…1ad0 | ||
| Party M | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbcffb6…ff59 | ||
| Party N | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x477379…4b12 | ||
| Party O | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc13e8d…298c | ||
| Party P | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x698328…ee4c | ||
| Party Q | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6c0e62…4c0d | ||
| Party R | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9f8fae…3576 | ||
| Party S | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa72f40…787a | ||
| Party T | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcad76f…413a | ||
| Party U | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd6237f…797a | ||
| Party V | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x65ed41…8868 | ||
| Party W | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe5d8f3…6d87 | ||
| Party X | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc100bd…e54d | ||
| Party Y | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x151c4e…553a | ||
| Party Z | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa9bc0e…7d2e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-25 | 100% |
| NO | Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will Civic Platform (GP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will United Russia (ER) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (7 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- LDPR holding third place in the Duma is a long shot at 28% 28% · $13K 24h
- 28% odds mark LDPR as the underdog against New People for third place in the Duma.
- $13K in 24h represents 28% of all-time volume, moving in tandem with the New People spike.
- The paired surge across both contracts points to active spread trading on seat-order risk.
- Resolution at next Russian parliamentary election; no firm date set.
- New People favored for third place in Russian Duma at 65% 65% · $17K 24h
- 65% odds put New People (NL) as the probable third-largest party in the next Russian parliamentary election.
- $17K in 24h is 31% of all-time volume, a meaningful single-session concentration.
- Surge may reflect updated polling or a shift in the LDPR contest (see Spike 3).
- Resolution tied to the next Russian parliamentary election cycle.
- LDPR finishing third in the Duma vote faces long odds 18% · $10K 24h
- Polymarket prices LDPR winning the third-most Duma seats at 18%, a distant second to New People's 78%.
- 24h volume of $10K is 25% of all-time, consistent with the broader Russian parliamentary suite seeing simultaneous action.
- At 18%, the market treats LDPR as a live but unlikely alternative to NL for the third-place slot.
- Resolves on official Russian State Duma election seat tallies, tied to Spikes 3, 4, and 5.
- KPRF taking third-most Duma seats trades near zero 5% · $11K 24h
- Polymarket prices the Communist Party (KPRF) finishing third in Duma seats at just 5%, near-total rejection.
- 24h volume of $11K is 43% of all-time, a concentrated session betting heavily against this outcome.
- At 5%, the market treats KPRF's third-place finish as a tail scenario, likely displaced by New People.
- Resolves on official Russian State Duma seat counts, directly linked to Spike 4 pricing.
- New People party finishing third in Duma vote finds buyers 78% · $23K 24h
- Polymarket prices New People (NL) winning the third-most Duma seats at 78%, strong market consensus.
- 24h volume of $23K is 47% of all-time handle, the contract's most active session by a wide margin.
- Elevated odds and heavy volume together suggest traders see NL's third-place finish as the path-of-least-resistance outcome.
- Resolves on official Russian parliamentary election seat tallies.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CJPNXB53C5",
"slug": "russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place",
"question": "Will a party other than United Russia or the Communist Party of the Russian Federation finish in third place in the next Russian parliamentary election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"russia",
"parliamentary-election",
"2026",
"seat-distribution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 34,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 30839,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 35,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}