Will United Russia win the most seats in the Russian parliamentary election? [ resolves 2026-09-30 (86D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 34 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Russia (ER) | 2026-09-30 | 95.7% | $228 | $532K | C | 0x94ffc7…cbc5 | ||
| New People (NL) | 2026-09-30 | 2.4% | — | $86K | C | 0x93657c…8842 | ||
| The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 2026-09-30 | 1.5% | $67 | $110K | C | 0xa3c1c0…52e9 | ||
| The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 2026-09-30 | 0.4% | — | $100K | C | 0x0a6e54…c87d | ||
| A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 2026-09-30 | 0.4% | $25K | $291K | C | 0x57de5c…4dbc | ||
| Rodina | 2026-09-30 | 0.2% | $5.2K | $273K | C | 0x109932…ac23 | ||
| Civic Platform (GP) | 2026-09-30 | 0.2% | — | $148K | C | 0x48337a…73d9 | ||
| Other | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7a7906…3a4d | ||
| Party B | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3af50e…e1dd | ||
| Party E | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xeba868…6ab3 | ||
| Party L | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x216410…d9fe | ||
| Party T | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x897970…c2b0 | ||
| Party W | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xddda62…3ea5 | ||
| Party Z | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5a52ab…e310 | ||
| Party A | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9baee5…3cdd | ||
| Party D | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x24a072…ce4a | ||
| Party J | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x97ac51…6698 | ||
| Party K | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9208cd…9b53 | ||
| Party M | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0be942…14d6 | ||
| Party R | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x48341e…4cc0 | ||
| Party U | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc0c4ac…ae7c | ||
| Party Y | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1a8224…f1d0 | ||
| Party F | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4a32d2…22a5 | ||
| Party H | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x83d50b…db60 | ||
| Party I | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6bdeaa…2bde | ||
| Party V | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3794b2…c78d | ||
| Party C | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa74116…cf08 | ||
| Party G | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3a6288…6c50 | ||
| Party N | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbbb58e…38be | ||
| Party O | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe396d3…cbe9 | ||
| Party P | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1a0680…8293 | ||
| Party Q | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa6aa2a…ba3a | ||
| Party S | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x321ac0…b4da | ||
| Party X | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x282bd4…d852 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Other win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party B win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party E win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party L win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party T win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party W win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party Z win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party A win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party D win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party J win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party K win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party M win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party R win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party U win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party Y win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party F win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party H win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party I win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party V win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party C win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party G win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party N win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party O win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party P win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party Q win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party S win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
| closed | Will Party X win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-30 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (27 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Traders write off Civic Platform's Duma plurality bid 0% · $413K 24h
- Polymarket prices GP at 0%, implying zero credible path to a Duma plurality.
- 24h volume of $413K is 73% of all-time handle, near-total lifetime activity in one session.
- Coordinated volume across Russian opposition party contracts suggests systematic position-closing or arbitrage sweep.
- Resolves on next Russian State Duma election result; United Russia dominance is the implicit baseline.
- SRZP Duma plurality: capital stacks against opposition path 0% · $376K 24h
- Polymarket marks SRZP at 0%, effectively ruling out any plurality outcome for the left-nationalist party.
- 55% of all-time volume, $376K, hit in 24h, mirroring the GP spike in timing and structure.
- Parallel surges across GP and SRZP contracts point to a single catalyst, possibly a Polymarket policy review or mass settlement event.
- Resolution contingent on official Duma seat tallies; current Russian electoral law makes opposition pluralities structurally implausible.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/russia-parliamentary-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/russia-parliamentary-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("russia-parliamentary-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T6F5BDTGC1",
"slug": "russia-parliamentary-election-winner",
"question": "Will United Russia win the most seats in the Russian parliamentary election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"russia",
"parliamentary-seats",
"2026",
"legislative-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 34,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1541020,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 24,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}