Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	2026-12-31	15.0%		$1.5K	$489K		C	`0x1fb51c…6534`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 1 market · share this text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf

platform source field polymarket.description → https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-66S3LD3901",
  "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay",
  "question": "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "russia-ukraine-conflict",
    "peace-negotiations",
    "geopolitics",
    "2026",
    "multi-outcome-parlay",
    "international-relations"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 489055,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 18,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →