Will Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement by 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | 2026-12-31 | 3.4% | — | $552K | C | 0x1fb51c…6534 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2)
polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
recent wire items
- Russia-Ukraine peace deal by 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 4%
- The Polymarket prediction market puts only 4% odds on Russia and Ukraine reaching a peace agreement by end of 2026.
- Putin's public rejection of near-term talks is consistent with the market's near-zero pricing; the productive Miami meeting framing has not pushed odds higher.
- Ukraine agreeing to cede territory by 2026 sits at 7% on Polymarket, and a Trump-Putin-Zelensky joint appearance is at 6%, painting a coherent low-probability diplomatic cluster.
- The Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; a signed, recognized agreement between Russia and Ukraine would be required for a YES resolution.
- Russia-Ukraine peace deal by 2026 remains a long shot Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket puts only 4% odds on Russia and Ukraine reaching a peace agreement by 2026, one of the lowest-probability contracts in this news cluster.
- Putin's explicit statement that talks are unlikely aligns directly with the market; there is no divergence between the news and the pricing.
- India's active peace mediation effort (Story 24) and US-Russia diesel deal (Story 25) add diplomatic noise but the Polymarket contract prices none of it as deal-closing.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424) on Ukraine signing any peace deal before 2027 sits at 7%, marginally above the 2026 deadline contract, implying the market sees almost no path in either horizon.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-66S3LD3901",
"slug": "russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay",
"question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"russia-ukraine-conflict",
"peace-negotiations",
"geopolitics",
"2026",
"multi-outcome-parlay",
"international-relations"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 551596,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 24,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}