Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be publicly proven? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by April 30?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 3 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31	2026-12-31	3.1%	$130	$925K	C	`0x002800…733c`
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30	2026-12-31	0.8%	$195	$933K	C	`0x85bdc6…2733`
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by April 30	2026-12-31	—	—	$15K	C	`0x4da12e…a1a0`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 3 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/satoshis-identity-be-proven-by/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/satoshis-identity-be-proven-by.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("satoshis-identity-be-proven-by")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7VC3LSR44",
  "slug": "satoshis-identity-be-proven-by",
  "question": "Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be publicly proven?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "satoshi-nakamoto",
    "bitcoin-creator",
    "cryptographic-proof",
    "identity-verification",
    "crypto-mystery"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 3,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 1872661,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 13,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →