Will Saudi Arabia ban US military aircraft by a specified date? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are not allowed to use certain military bases within Saudi Arabia, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft, such as only aircraft involved in a specified U.S. military operation, will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that Saudi Arabia has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the government of Saudi Arabia from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| closed | Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | — |
| closed | Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22? | polymarket | 2026-05-24 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/saudi-arabia-bans-us-military-aircraft-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/saudi-arabia-bans-us-military-aircraft-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("saudi-arabia-bans-us-military-aircraft-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-V7W8T6VMN4",
"slug": "saudi-arabia-bans-us-military-aircraft-by",
"question": "Will Saudi Arabia ban US military aircraft by a specified date?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"saudi-arabia",
"us-military",
"diplomatic-relations",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 164443,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the government of Saudi Arabia",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}