Will SCOTUS accept a sports event contract case by the settlement date? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-12 ]
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by October 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
the official SCOTUS docket or orders list from rules text credible legal reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- SCOTUS sports contract case stays a long shot by Dec 31 36% · $63K 24h
- Polymarket prices 36% odds, market leans against acceptance before year-end.
- $62K traded in 24h, 72% of all-time volume, signaling sharp new attention.
- Late-term SCOTUS docket speculation ahead of potential December cert announcements.
- Resolves December 31, 2026; docket activity between now and then is the key trigger.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-31-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-31-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-31-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FLWXD81WN4",
"slug": "scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-31-2026",
"question": "Will SCOTUS accept a sports event contract case by the settlement date?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"scotus-decision",
"sports-contracts",
"legal-outcome",
"2026",
"supreme-court"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 973066,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the official SCOTUS docket or orders list",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible legal reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}