Will a new senator be elected to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Democrats hold Alaska Senate odds above 75% 75% · $193K 24h
- Kalshi prices Democrats winning Alaska's Senate seat at 75%, a strong favorite reading in a historically red state.
- $192,773 in 24h volume represents 27% of all-time activity, a notable single-day push for a state-level race.
- Surge likely reflects new polling, candidate news, or national environment shifts tightening the GOP's hold on Alaska.
- Contract resolves on the certified Alaska Senate election result.
- Democrats hold a 75% edge in Alaska Senate 75% · $193K 24h
- Kalshi prices Democrats at 75%, a strong favorite in a state that leaned Republican for decades.
- 27% of all-time volume landed in 24h, signaling a sharp burst of fresh conviction.
- Alaska's unusual ranked-choice dynamics and a fractured GOP field keep this race in play.
- Contract resolves on 2026 election night.
- Republicans slip to 29% in Alaska Senate race on fresh volume 29% · $116K 24h
- 29% odds put Republicans as clear underdogs in the Alaska Senate contest.
- $116K in 24h represents 35% of all-time Kalshi volume on this contract.
- Heavy fresh activity suggests new polling or candidate news is driving rapid repricing.
- Resolves on Alaska Senate race election result.
- Republicans slip to 29% in Alaska Senate as volume surges 29% · $116K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican Alaska Senate win at just 29%, making it a clear underdog contract.
- $115.8K in 24h represents 35% of all-time volume, the sharpest single-day interest to date.
- Elevated activity this far from November suggests new polling or candidate news is driving reassessment.
- Outcome resolves on Alaska 2026 general election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senateak-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senateak-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senateak-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7",
"slug": "senateak-26",
"question": "Will a new senator be elected to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"alaska-politics",
"republican-democrat",
"election-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 239432,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}