Michigan Senate winner? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Michigan for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Long-shot GOP Michigan Senate bid draws fresh attention at 22% 22% · $934K 24h
- At 22%, Kalshi traders price Michigan as a Democratic-leaning Senate hold, with Republicans as underdogs.
- $934K in 24h equals 26% of all-time volume, a notable session for a race widely seen as secondary.
- A 22% Republican price in Michigan reflects renewed but skeptical interest, possibly tied to candidate news or polling shifts.
- Resolves on the 2026 Michigan Senate election result.
- Heavy trading tests a long-shot GOP hold in Michigan Senate 23% · $749K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 23%, market treats a GOP Michigan Senate win as a clear underdog outcome.
- 24h volume of $749K is 26% of all-time flow, marking one of the contract's heaviest single-day sessions.
- Michigan is a key Democratic-held seat; fresh capital at this price suggests positioning around a contested battlefield map.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm Election Day results.
- Republicans face long odds in the Michigan Senate race 22% · $702K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 22%, consistent underdog status, below the 25% threshold.
- $702K in 24h is 27% of all-time volume, running in near-lockstep with the Democratic-side contract.
- Mirror volume on both sides of the Michigan Senate market points to two-sided hedging into election eve.
- Contract resolves opposite SPIKE 0; combined flows reveal a contested close-out.
- Democrats hold a wide lead in the Michigan Senate race 79% · $1.6M 24h
- Kalshi prices Democrats at 79%, a strong favorite, not yet a lock.
- $1.6M traded in 24h equals 25% of all-time volume, a decisive capital deployment.
- Eve-of-election flow with Michigan a key Senate battleground; fresh money backs the incumbent party.
- Contract resolves on Michigan Senate outcome, election day Nov 3.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatemi-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senatemi-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senatemi-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GBSY094P67",
"slug": "senatemi-26",
"question": "Michigan Senate winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"michigan-politics",
"election-outcome",
"binary-event",
"partisan-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 208341,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}