Nebraska Senate winner? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Nebraska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Nebraska Senate GOP stays a near-certainty at 99% 99% · $3.3M 24h
- Kalshi prices Republican Nebraska Senate win at 99%, outcome treated as a formality.
- 47% of all-time volume in 24h points to late-stage position squaring rather than new directional bets.
- Nebraska race sees capital inflow consistent with traders closing opposing positions at a loss.
- Resolves on certified 2026 Nebraska Senate result.
- Nebraska Senate GOP odds hold firm through a volume surge 75% · $809K 24h
- Kalshi prices Nebraska GOP Senate win at 75%, a strong favorite read.
- $809K traded in 24h, 34% of all-time contract volume in a single session.
- Heavy one-day flow on a Senate race one week out signals election-eve positioning.
- Resolves on Nebraska 2026 Senate result; independent candidacy is the key risk factor.
- Republicans stay favored in Nebraska Senate as volume builds 71% · $612K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 71%, solid favorite, but gap from certainty keeps two-way flow active.
- $612K in 24h represents 28% of all-time volume, a substantial pre-election positioning surge.
- Nebraska drew outside attention after redistricting and candidate drama; fresh volume confirms elevated national interest.
- Resolves on Nebraska 2026 Senate election outcome.
- Republicans lead Nebraska Senate race at 70% on the tape 70% · $184K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 70% to hold Nebraska, a firm but not certain lead.
- $184K in 24h volume, 37% of all-time, marks the largest single-day trading session to date.
- Nebraska has emerged as a competitive Senate battleground, drawing fresh capital as polling shifts.
- Contract resolves on November 2026 election results.
- Dan Osborn independent Senate bid absorbs fresh speculative flow 29% · $31K 24h
- 29% implies the market treats Osborn as a live long-shot, not a fringe candidate, in a red-state race.
- $30.7K in 24h accounts for 38% of all-time Kalshi volume, renewed institutional attention on this seat.
- Independent Senate bids rarely poll this high; fresh flow may reflect new endorsement or polling data.
- Resolves with November 2026 midterms; Osborn's 2024 near-miss gives the contract historical credibility.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatene-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senatene-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senatene-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-37PJ66HMC4",
"slug": "senatene-26",
"question": "Nebraska Senate winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"nebraska-politics",
"electoral-prediction",
"republican-democrat"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 239240,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}