Will the Tennessee Senate race be decided by January 4, 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 2 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Republicans	2027-01-04	96.5%		—	$5.5K		A	`SENATETN-26-R`
Democratics	2027-01-04	3.5%		—	$959		A	`SENATETN-26-D`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	United States Congress	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 2 markets · share this text

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Tennessee for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress"

sources (1) · single authority

United States Congress committed source

recent wire items

2026-10-11T14:36:40+00:00 volume-spike
Tennessee Senate stays a GOP lock at 92% 92% · $62K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican Tennessee Senate win at 92%, near-certainty territory.
- 24h volume of $62K is 39% of all-time handle, a significant single-day commitment.
- Heavy fresh volume into a high-conviction line suggests traders are positioning ahead of midterm consolidation.
- Resolves after 2026 Tennessee Senate race results are certified.
2026-10-11T07:48:50+00:00 volume-spike
Tennessee Senate GOP hold stays a strong bet 93% · $62K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 93%, near-certain hold with little room for surprise.
- 39% of all-time volume hit in 24h, signaling sharp renewed focus on this race.
- Fresh capital flowing into a near-settled race suggests bettors are locking in late conviction ahead of midterm season.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm election night.
2026-10-07T15:02:49+00:00 volume-spike
Tennessee Senate odds hold at 94% through a volume surge 94% · $42K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republican victory in Tennessee at 94%, reflecting a near-settled race with minimal upset risk.
- 49% of all-time volume, $42K, hit in 24 hours, the single largest day of activity on this contract.
- Late-cycle volume at high conviction levels often reflects hedgers and latecomers locking in exposure ahead of Election Day.
- Resolves on the certified outcome of the Tennessee Senate general election.
2026-10-07T07:48:37+00:00 volume-spike
Tennessee Senate seat stays firmly in Republican hands 91% · $44K 24h
- At 91%, Kalshi traders treat a Republican Tennessee Senate win as near-certain.
- 24h volume of $44K is 55% of the contract's entire all-time volume, majority of all trading in one session.
- Surge likely driven by late-cycle positioning as election approaches and arbitrageurs compress residual risk.
- Resolves on Tennessee Senate race outcome.
2026-10-06T14:43:21+00:00 volume-spike
Tennessee Senate GOP odds stay firm at 93% on fresh volume 93% · $11K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican Senate win in Tennessee at 93%, near-certain by market consensus.
- 26% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, a notable refresh for a race widely seen as settled.
- Fresh trading on a locked-in race may reflect cross-market hedging or cycle-basket positioning.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm election results.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatetn-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senatetn-26`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("senatetn-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T9PVHWGH35",
  "slug": "senatetn-26",
  "question": "Will the Tennessee Senate race be decided by January 4, 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate",
    "tennessee",
    "2027-election",
    "electoral-politics",
    "partisan-outcome"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 2,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 6448,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "United States Congress",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "United States Congress",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "United States Congress",
      "url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →